Auli'i Cravalho voices Moana in Disney Animation's “Moana 2.”
Disney
The domestic box office is set for the biggest Thanksgiving telecast since the pandemic, thanks to a Polynesian princess, a pair of witches and a vengeful gladiator.
Disneys “Moana 2” will hit theaters Wednesday and generate between $120 million and $150 million in box office receipts in the U.S. and Canada through Sunday. It will be accompanied by Universal “Bad” and Paramounts “Gladiator II,” both in their second week of domestic showings.
Box office analysts believe the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday through Sunday, should easily bring in $200 million in ticket sales and could even become the second or third highest Thanksgiving period in movie history.
“The trifecta of 'Moana 2,' 'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II' is a bona fide perfect storm for theaters this Thanksgiving,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “The holiday has seen major releases come together regularly to broaden the appeal of the entire audience, but that has thus far been a challenge for the industry to replicate in the post-pandemic era. This year is very different, with such a holy trinity of tentpole releases that could do just that. anchoring some of the biggest all-around box office results the holiday frame has ever seen.
According to data from Comscore, the Thanksgiving holiday has not been worth more than $200 million since 2019. Currently, the top-grossing Thanksgiving weekend of 2018 is led by “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which together generated $315 million in ticket sales. The second-highest revenue during the holiday season was the $294.2 million taken during the same five-day period in 2013.
“Thanksgiving is perhaps the most important holiday season of the year for movie theaters as it sets the tone for the year-end box office sprint,” said Paul Degarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “The strength of the last few weeks of the year will determine total annual box office revenue and its perception as a win or a loss for the industry.”
And Disney could use another animation win.
After ruling the Thanksgiving box office for years with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, it has failed to live up to expectations with its recent string of releases.
In 2016, “Moana” opened over the Thanksgiving holiday and generated $82.1 million. The following year, “Coco” grossed $72.9 million in its opening, and in 2018, “Ralph Breaks the Internet” totaled $84.8 million in its five-day debut. Just before the pandemic in 2019, “Frozen II” added $125 million over the Thanksgiving holiday, after opening the week before, to more than $130 million.
Meanwhile, “Encanto,” which arrived in the middle of the pandemic, managed to raise $40.6 million in 2021. “Strange World” flopped after taking in just $18.9 million during the 2022 holiday season, and “Wish” raked in a paltry $31.6. million by 2023. No Disney animated film was released during Thanksgiving in 2020.
However, “Moana 2” should outperform these post-pandemic releases. The film arrives in theaters a year after the first film was named the most streamed film aimed at children and families. And audiences flocked to Disney and Pixar's “Inside Out 2” this summer. “Inside Out 2” opened to $154.2 million domestically and grossed more than $1 billion worldwide during its entire run.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC and Fandango. NBCUniversal distributed 'Wicked'.