Global pressure on supply chains continues until 2022: ING Economists
The pandemic-led, already disrupted global supply chains have been further disrupted by the war between Russia and Ukraine and those pressures will continue through 2022, senior economists and ING’s head of raw materials strategy say.
Here are the best supply chain and trading quotes from ING economists:
“Supply chain improvement is unlikely to last with the war and the zero-Covid policy: Global trade in goods is facing a lot of headwinds this year. While the reliability of global planning, followed by Sea-Intelligence, continues to improve slowly and in March, reaching 35.9 percent to 34.4 percent the month before, remains below the 2021 level. And remember, while the congestion data for March reflects the early effects of the war in Ukraine, it doesn’t reflect the lockdown in Shanghai .”
“With traffic jams in Chinese ports having increased significantly as a result of the zero-Covid policy in China and in the North Sea as a result of the war in Ukraine, we do not expect the reliability of global timetables to improve much further. For the North Sea region, sanctions against Russia, as well as voluntary bans, are creating new congestion, pointing to long-term problems for supply chains as sailing and air freight arrangements need to be reorganized, resulting in longer transport times.”
“The impact of the long shutdown in the largest global port and export area will be seen in other parts of the world later: While congestion at the LA Longbeach bottleneck on the US West Coast improved noticeably in the early months of the year, expect We believe the pressure will increase again in the next few months due to the increasing number of ships waiting to dock outside Chinese ports, particularly in Shanghai.”
“Input and labor shortages add to the problem: Material and labor shortages also continue to hamper production and transportation. This adds to the existing material bottlenecks caused by the pandemic, while sharply increased prices make it difficult for manufacturers to calculate accurately for this year and commit to prices for delivery to customers much later.”
“Permanent shifts in trade flows are entering a bumpy transition phase: As a result of the war in Ukraine, we believe that trade flows will be significantly reformed as market players who previously bought raw materials and goods from Russia look for alternatives. However, it is not may compensate for everything and supply in other regions may not always rise immediately.All in all, we expect trade flows from Russia to Western countries that have sanctioned Russia to be permanently halted, with some Asian, African and South American countries taking the will offset losses in western exports.”
“The EU’s proposed ban on Russian oil would be important for global markets: the EU is the largest destination for Russian oil, with imports of about 2.3 MB/d in 2021, equivalent to about 26 percent of the total EU crude oil imports. phasing out Russian oil would mean European buyers would have time to look for alternative sources, enabling a more orderly change in trade flows.”
“Trade Routes – Temporary Bypass: The Black Sea region is not only the ‘granary’ region, but is also one of 14 global bottlenecks, as identified by Chatham House, through which exceptional amounts of food pass around the world. With Ukrainian ports that have been closed for the war, it is currently extremely difficult to get grain exports through this route.”
“More self-reliance desired – but not economically necessary and time-consuming process: Another trend, which will now gain further momentum, is the shift towards more self-reliance. It is unlikely that trade numbers will be sufficient for the time being, as this is only a few areas so far that are considered critical, such as microchips or certain raw materials. Also, this trend is more of a long-term story, as it takes a lot of time to set up new industries. China has been on this path for years.”
“Ultimately, the war in Ukraine could result in a new world economic order, characterized by more ‘friendshoring’ as labeled by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen – trade relations with countries that have long-standing relationships, cooperate and share similar values could become more valuable Ethics may also become a more important consideration in commerce.”
“Overall, conditions for international trade remain very difficult and the low costs and perceived low risks (both political and logistical) that have helped support the development of global supply chains have become sources of uncertainty. However, these supply chains remain intact for the time being. It’s more about rerouting, diversifying into suppliers and/or geographies, increasing inventories and building inventories,” they added.
