Restaurants warn of weak first quarter, but say sales will pick up later this year

In like a lion, out like a lamb.

That is how restaurant managers 2025 have in mind after a rough start to the year, largely caused by freezing temperatures, forest fires and caution for the consumer.

Many restaurant chains, such as Restaurant brands' Burger King and Popeyes, said that the sale improved in the fourth quarter when the values ​​brought back dinners who cooked at home instead. Even McDonald's Domestic traffic grew, despite a fall of 1.4% in the sale of the same store in the same store.

But the trend returned in January.

“We started the year confronted with some general roads in the industry, exacerbated by considerable weather events throughout the country,” Wendy's CFO Kenneth Cook said on Thursday at the company's conference interview.

The net turnover of FastFood rose by 3.4%in January, compared to the period from a year ago, but the growth had fallen slightly compared to the peak of 4.9%, according to Restion Market Revenue Management Solutions. Traffic for breakfast and lunch both fell during the month.

“I think consumers are still on their guard,” US President Doug Fry told CNBC. “I think they are waiting to see how the economy goes, but they are also not willing to sacrifice that quality and portion size and the amount of what they eat. They want to find the best value for the dollar they spend.”

It is expected that traffic and revenue growth as the year progresses, partly because of the easy comparisons with last year's falls. Industry's traffic was negative every month, except November, and the sale slid in the summer, which is usually a highlight for restaurants.

“We expect that comparisons will be completed on an annual basis until the summer months,” said restaurant brands CFO Sami Siddiqui.

January always brings colder temperatures, but this year it also included forest fires in Los Angeles and new uncertainty after President Donald Trump's inauguration.

Chipotle Mexican grill Estimation that the forest fires damage its traffic growth in January with 400 basic points, or 4%.

In general, traffic to Chipotle restaurants fell at least a year by 2% in January compared to a year ago, injured by the weather and New Year's Day on a Wednesday. Chipotle CFO Adam Rymer told analysts that the company believes that his in the first quarter of the same stores will be roughly flat.

Looking at the second quarter, Chipotle also expects weaker sale of the same store because it is confronted with comparisons with last year's popular promotions. While the company predicts a stronger turnover in the second half of the year, the weak prediction for the coming months led to a decrease in the shares by 4%.

For now, restaurants do not predict a major impact on their companies of the Trump administration trade war. Chipotle, which imports about half of his avocado offer from Mexico, trivialized concerns about how currently suspended rates of 25% would increase food costs. The company, together with Wendy's and McDonald's, has not included any impact in its prospects of the new 10% tasks on China and potential levies on Mexico and Canada.

But consumers are worried about rates and the potential pressure on their portfolios.

US Consumer Sentiment reached a low point of seven months in February, because households are afraid of rising prices in the following year. Inflation in January was already hotter than expected, with the prices of road-of-home by 3.4% in the last 12 months, according to the Ministry of Labor.

For the chains that plan a comeback, it is expected that sales will improve later this year.

McDonald's, for example, is still waiting for his turnover to fully rebound after an E. coli outbreak associated with his quarter pimder burgers started to weigh on sale in mid-October. The fast food giant predicts that the question will recover at the start of the second quarter, said McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski on Monday during the company's conference.

Moreover, if the total health of the consumer strengthens, McDonald's predicts even more sales profit.

“If the underlying environment improves our initial expectations, especially with regard to consumers with a lower income, we would expect to benefit disproportionately to our competitors,” said CFO Ian signs of McDonald.

Then there is StarbucksFor which a much longer timeline is needed to reverse his business. The sale of the same coffee chain store has fallen four consecutive quarters, because consumers choose to buy their caffeinated drinks elsewhere.

Starbucks has suspended his prospects for Fiscale 2025, so it did not provide insight into the expected turnover for the year. However, Starbucks CFO Rachel Ruggeri told investors that the income of the company is expected to improve in the second half of the tax year.

“[Earnings per share] It is expected to be the lowest [the fiscal second quarter] Based on an absolute basis due to seasonal influences, the restructuring of the organization, I just spoke over and raised investments, with a year-on-year pressure in the quarter, “she said at the end of January.” EPS is then expected to improve the tax year 2025 in the second half, both successively and on an annual basis. “