Retail inflation, which has remained above 6 percent since January 2022, is likely to rise further, reaching between 6.1 and 6.3 percent in March, on the back of rising crude oil and food prices.
The government is set to release retail inflation figures later in the day and if the forecasts from several reports bear any fruit, it is likely to remain above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 6 percent ceiling in a third month. queue.
Indian retail inflation had risen to 6.07 percent in February 2022, up from 6.01 percent in January 2022. Inflation had risen mainly as a result of higher food and clothing prices.
Inflation in the retail or consumer price index (CPI) is likely to rise to a 16-month high of 6.35 percent in March, according to a Reuters poll, mainly due to rising food prices.
The price of crude oil has risen above $100 a barrel since March after the war between Russia and Ukraine started on February 24, 2022.
Reuters’ April 4-8 poll of 48 economists suggested that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), rose to 6.35 percent year-on-year in March, from 6.07 percent in February. That would be the highest level since November 2020.
On April 8, RBI had raised its current fiscal year retail inflation target to 5.7 percent amid rising global prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, though it expected grain and legume prices to decline amid prospects of good fortune. harvest of winter crops.
“Global food and metal prices have hardened significantly. The economy is grappling with a sharp rise in inflation… Inflation is now forecast at 5.7 percent in 2022-23 with Q1 at 6.3 percent; Q2 at 5 percent Q3 at 5.4 percent and Q4 at 5.1 percent,” RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said during the unveiling of the first monetary policy review for the current fiscal year (2022-2023).
In its previous policy review in February 2022, the RBI had forecast 2022-2023 retail inflation at 4.5 percent.