Summer box office bounced back thanks to 'Inside Out 2,' 'Deadpool & Wolverine'

Analysts and cinema owners already assumed a few months ago that the summer movie season could be the worst performance of the past ten years.

Thanks to some anthropomorphic emotion and a foul-mouthed, fourth-wall-breaking antihero, the film raked in $3.6 billion in domestic summer box office sales. While that’s down 10% from the same period in 2023, it’s a markedly better result than anyone in the industry had expected.

“After ‘Barbenheimer’ grossed $4 billion in summer 2023, expectations for May were tempered as the industry braced for what would undoubtedly be a more modest summer 2024 revenue result,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

Entering the summer movie season, which begins the first weekend in May and runs through Labor Day, the domestic box office was down 22% year-over-year, and the traditional Marvel Cinematic Universe film kicked off the season.

In fact, it was the first time since 2009 that the summer box office didn't have a superhero blockbuster to kick off the season, and it showed.

Disney Warner Bros. and Marvel Studios have consistently launched this highly lucrative movie season for the past two decades. In fact, only two films in the Marvel franchise that debuted at the beginning of the summer have grossed less than $100 million in their opening weekend — excluding the pandemic years.

This year, the headline film for the first weekend of summer was Universal's “The Fall Guy.” And despite strong marketing efforts and good reviews, the film failed to generate box office sales. The film grossed less than $28 million in its domestic debut and stalled at less than $100 million during its domestic run.

Warner Bros. and George Miller's “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” also came out. The high-octane actioner only grossed $67 million during its domestic run.

Meanwhile, Disney's “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” exceeded expectations, grossing a total of $171 million.

But it wasn't until mid-June that the box office got a decent influx of moviegoers. Disney and Pixar's “Inside Out 2” broke records and marked the return of the troubled animation studio. Up until Labor Day, the film was the highest-grossing summer movie with $650 million in box office revenue.

“Fortunately, the gloom in May turned into a much-needed boost in June, when a string of box office hits set off a chain reaction that lasted into August,” Dergarabedian said.

The summer got a new boost with “Deadpool & Wolverine,” which debuted in late July. The third installment in the Deadpool franchise, and the first for Disney's MCU, broke records for an R-rated film, grossing more than $600 million domestically over the holiday weekend.

Universal and Illumination's “Despicable Me 4”, Universal's “Twisters” and from Sony “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” also made a big contribution to the summer box office, along with breakout hits like Disney's “Alien Romulus,” Sony's “It Ends With Us” and Paramount's “A Quiet Place: Day One.” Fathom's 15th anniversary reissue of “Coraline” also grossed $31 million in ticket sales.

These titles also contributed to the gross of over $900 million in ticket sales in August, the highest August turnover since 2016.

Analysts expect the summer momentum to continue into the fall, ultimately improving overall third-quarter box office results.

“Our confidence in a better-than-forecast 3Q result is bolstered by a solid September lineup of releases, including ‘Beetlejuice Beetlejuice’ (now on track for a reported $80m+ opening weekend), horror title ‘Speak No Evil,’ and animated films ‘Transformers One’ (on track for a $40m+ opening weekend) and ‘The Wild Robot,'” Eric Handler, an analyst at Roth MKM, wrote in a research note published Tuesday. “If September ends in the low double digits versus last year, the quarter would end in the low single digits.”

It is unclear whether total box office revenues will reach the levels of 2023. Last year’s twin strikes, which disrupted production, are still weighing heavily on the cinema offering. However, there are plenty of attractive titles hitting theaters in the coming months.

“There may not be a behemoth quite as large in scale as ‘Inside Out 2’ or ‘Deadpool & Wolverine,’ but the collection of sequels to compelling franchises like Beetlejuice, Transformers, Joker, Smile and Venom gives moviegoers, theaters and studios plenty of reason to be excited about the next two months,” said Shawn Robbins, founder and owner of Box Office Theory.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.