Thanksgiving box office showdown shows importance of premium screens

Three heavyweight Hollywood blockbusters will face off at the box office this November, each vying for audience attention, ticket sales and time on cinema's biggest screens.

Universal'Bad', Decisive'Gladiator II' and Disney“Moana 2” arrives in theaters within five days of each other, right around the Thanksgiving holiday. All three titles are expected to flourish at the box office, both during their opening and throughout the rest of the year.

But at a time when moviegoers are more discerning about how they spend their money and which movies they want to see off the couch, box office analysts are wondering which blockbuster will benefit most from premium ticket sales.

Premium large format displays, often called PLFs, provide a better viewing experience IMAX, DolbyScreen X and 4DX — which have a higher ticket price. The physical screens are often larger than traditional movie screens or have auditoriums with higher quality sound systems or seating options.

“Audiences are drawn to the biggest, best and most immersive venues,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics for Fandango's film division and founder and owner of Box Office Theory. “They are the first to sell out for films in high demand, and opening day sales often slow or spill over into future days as the screens and their prime seats fill up rather than moving to non- premium, traditional auditoriums that are less attractive to most modern moviegoers.”

There are currently more than 950 theaters in North America that have these PLF screens, a 33.7% increase from just five years ago, according to Comscore data. These screens will account for 9.1% of the domestic box office, approximately $600 million in 2024.

“The importance of PLF growth as a percentage of annual box office in recent years cannot be overstated,” said Paul Degarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “It's notable that as we emerge from the pandemic, moviegoers have increasingly moved toward these higher-priced cinema options.”

Currently, prices for premium tickets average around $16.71 each, according to Steve Buck of movie data company EntTelligence, an increase of 8% since 2021, when the company first started reporting these numbers. Standard tickets, meanwhile, cost about $11.82 each, a 7.4% increase over 2021 prices.

“Premium format is a major draw for a moviegoer looking for the best possible immersive experience and often represents more than a third of a tentpole's opening weekend attendance,” Buck said.

Recognizing the growing importance of these types of theaters, the National Association of Theater Owners announced in September that the eight largest theater chains in North America would invest more than $2.2 billion to modernize and upgrade movie theater locations. This investment will be split between updates to laser projectors, immersive sound systems and seating updates, as well as improving concession offerings and adding family entertainment options such as bowling and arcades.

PLF revenues still represent a small share of the total box office, with most audiences seeing films on traditional digital screens. However, it is no small feat that the PLF box office has grown by 33% in just five years.

The films benefiting most from PLF ticket sales have been Hollywood's biggest blockbusters.

Audiences want to see explosive action films and dazzling spectacles in the most cutting-edge locations. That's why films like Universal's 'Oppenheimer,' Disney's 'Avatar: The Way of Water' and Warner Bros.' “Dune” and “Dune: Part Two” captured a significant portion of the PLF box office during their runs.

Those were the movies even shot on special cameras for the express purpose of being seen on premium large format screens. Both “Oppenheimer” and “Dune: Part Two” had fans waiting days and even weeks to watch the film at sold-out IMAX locations.

So studios are betting big on franchise films. In part, this is because audiences have flocked to existing intellectual property in the wake of the pandemic – just look at 'Deadpool & Wolverine', 'Inside Out 2', 'Despicable Me 4', 'Dune: Part Two', 'Twisters' and 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' reach top box office receipts in 2024.

It's one reason why next year between 50% and 70% of films from the six major studios – Universal, Disney, Warner Bros., Paramount, Sony and Lionsgate – will be tied to existing intellectual property.

It's also why the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday could be tricky. “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” will first debut on November 22 and will likely evenly split available PLF locations. The two films have opted out of the Thanksgiving battle in the months since “Moana 2” set its Nov. 27 date.

However, as 'Moana 2' releases, these premium screen layouts will change. Studios and movie theater operators enter into agreements when films are released, specifying how many theaters a film will be shown in, how often and on what types of screens. As new films debut, those arrangements change. It's unclear how the PLF screens will be split once all three films hit theaters at the same time.

“There are periods in the calendar when a release is slower than others, allowing one or two films to dominate premium screen ownership, but successful or potentially successful films can be cannibalized at the box office during times of intense competition for the top players.” screens,” Robbins said. “That's what happened last year during the 'Barbenheimer' craze, when Oppenheimer specifically controlled IMAX screens for an agreed-upon time frame before eventually allowing Barbie to expand to that format weeks after release.”

Many have wondered whether 'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II' could have the potential to repeat the box office highlights of 2023's 'Barbenheimer' – the double release of Warner Bros.' “Barbie” and Universal’s “Oppenheimer” on the same weekend.

At this point, box office analysts have a wide range of information about what “Wicked” could do on its domestic opening weekend. On the conservative side, there is a revenue of $85 million forecast by leading entertainment and technology research firm NRG. Meanwhile, others speculate that the first film in a planned duology could hit $100 million and rake in as much as $150 million during its first three days in theaters.

The divergent expectations come as Hollywood has struggled to market and turn a profit for movie musicals in recent years, but has also seen popular IP titles surpass them. Because “Wicked” is based on one of Broadway's most popular musicals, box office analysts have a hard time predicting where it will end up.

Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” is expected to gross between $60 million and $80 million in the same weekend. “Moana 2,” which is already seeing record ticket sales for an animated film in 2024, is expected to gross more than $100 million for its full five-day domestic debut.

“Word of mouth about a movie itself can ultimately still be the driver of consumers' choice to spend their money on movie tickets and popcorn,” Robbins said. “After an initial burst of strong reception and a premium screen grab upon release, certain films will transcend format preference and casual audiences will be convinced to purchase a ticket regardless of format.”

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Wicked,” “Oppenheimer,” “Despicable Me 4” and “Twisters” and owns Fandango.