Posters for Wicked and Gladiator II
Sources: Universal (L), Paramount (R)
The cash register will be painted pink and green this weekend, with a touch of red.
Universal “Bad” and Paramounts “Gladiator II” arrives before the Thanksgiving holiday and is expected to gross more than $200 million in combined ticket sales this weekend.
“'Wicked' and 'Gladiator II' are the kind of duo-punch, counter-programming cinema that audiences eagerly await,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “This fall's box office has had its ups and downs as usual, but these two films are on track to kick off a potentially historic holiday run, with 'Moana 2' also poised to deliver big results next Thanksgiving week.”
“Wicked” has already grossed $19.2 million at the domestic box office through advance screenings held throughout the week. Amazon Prime members handed out $2.5 million from 750 theaters in the U.S. on Monday, and another $5.7 million was raised from about 2,000 theaters in the U.S. and Canada on Wednesday. “Wicked” took in another $11 million through standard Thursday night preview screenings at about 3,300 theaters.
Tracking projections for “Wicked” started around $80 million in late October but have since climbed to a range of $120 million to $140 million, with some projecting an even higher three-day total for the film's debut weekend.
Hollywood has struggled in recent years to market movie musicals and make a profit. However, the industry has also seen fan-favorite IP titles perform better. Because “Wicked” is based on one of Broadway's most popular musicals, box office analysts have a hard time predicting where it will end up.
Heading into its opening, “Wicked” received a 92% “Fresh” rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes from over 160 critics. The Popcorn Meter, a metric the site uses to calculate what percentage of verified movie ticket holders rated the film 3.5 stars or higher, stands at 99% with more than 2,500 reviews.
Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande play Elphaba and Glinda in Universal's 'Wicked'.
Universal
Whatever the weekend has in store, “Wicked” should debut as the highest-opening Broadway adaptation in movie history. The current record holder is Disneys “Into the Woods,” which grossed $31 million during its first three days in theaters in 2014, according to Comscore data.
Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” has grossed $6.5 million from Thursday's previews and is expected to add between $60 million and $80 million to its domestic weekend total. Released 24 years after the original, the film has a 73% “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes from more than 200 reviews. By comparison, Gladiator earned $34.8 million during its opening weekend in May 2000.
The power of 'Glicked'
“The so-called 'Glicked' movie mashup is reminiscent of the 'Barbenheimer' phenomenon and is creating a cultural buzz,” said Paul Degarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “And while not quite to that level, it certainly raised the profile of both films and that, combined with overwhelmingly positive reviews, has positioned these two very different films for opening weekend glory and, more importantly, for long-term playability during the holidays.”
Between “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and previously released films still in theaters, box office analysts project a weekend of ticket sales between $200 million and $250 million. While impressive, that would still fall outside the top 20 highest-grossing weekends of all time, according to Comscore data.
The July 21, 2023 “Barbenheimer” weekend grossed $311 million, the fourth highest weekend gross of all time.
“It's not just about the first few hours or days, though,” Robbins noted. “These films can and likely will perform well in the coming weeks, especially if word of mouth reflects critics' response.”
This weekend's numbers will help boost the overall annual box office, which remains 11% behind 2023 levels over the same period. And moviegoers coming to the theaters will be treated to ads for other films coming out in December and beyond 2025 release.
“Our job is to maximize what comes in,” says Greg Marcus, CEO of Marcus Corporationowner of Marcus Theaters and Marcus Hotels and Resorts. “Take good care of our customers. Give the customers who come by a great experience. Make sure the lines are moving as quickly as possible so that we can serve them literally and figuratively and show how fun it is to go to the movies and enjoy something with other people.”
Marcus Theaters, along with dozens of other movie theater chains large and small, offer guests drink and food specials, popcorn buckets and themed beverage containers, as well as other movie merchandise at their locations.
Cinema features a “Gladiator II” popcorn bucket in the shape of the Colosseum and a gladiator helmet that fits over the drinking cups to store popcorn. Regal has a cup in the shape of a witch's hat. AMCs The menu includes pink and green popcorn with candies and a collection of themed drinks such as green apple ICEE, Sprite variants called Ozdust Punch and Emerald Elixir and alcoholic drinks called Popular Pink and Gravity Green.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC, Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Wicked.”