The world must find $1.3 trillion in incremental investments by 2030 to boost all types of energy production and infrastructure, from renewables to oil and gas, to avoid an energy crisis, US bank JP Morgan said in its first annual energy outlook. .
“Our key finding is that by 2030, energy demand growth will exceed supply growth by about 20 percent based on current trends, driven primarily by emerging economies and their efforts to develop and empower their citizens. poverty,” strategists Marko Kolanovic and Christyan said Malek.
Investments should include all fuels, including oil and gas, renewables and nuclear power, with demand for oil alone expected to grow by about 10 percent by 2030 and gas by 18 percent.
“Not all fuels are created equal, and for the most part (and within this time horizon) different energy sources are not completely replaceable – solar panels cannot replace oil, which is needed, for example, in industrial production of petrochemicals,” the outlook says. , to which 30 analysts from JP Morgan contributed.
The research contrasts sharply with a statement from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said last year that no new investments in fossil fuels were needed.
The IEA has since clarified that its outlook was just one of the scenarios proposed and called on OPEC to pump more oil.
“On a very long scale, all current energy sources will be seen as a transition to a safer, cleaner and cheaper energy source. In the long run, this can only be delivered through nuclear fusion,” JP Morgan’s outlook says.
“Until scalable, reliable, clean and affordable technologies are available, the world will have to work with all current energy sources – fossil and non-fossil – and their respective drawbacks,” it said.
It said global energy end-use spending would rise to 9.5 percent of GDP by 2022, from an average of 8.4 percent in 2015-2019.
A further rise in energy costs would increase the likelihood of social unrest and a slowdown in the energy transition, JP Morgan said.