There will probably be hectic activity at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, since reports indicate a visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Washington in just a week. That is unusual. Normally an event of this size would require months of preparation by both parties. An 'civil servant' of the White House has even confirmed that Modi will visit the US on 12 February and meet the president the next day. Admittedly, there had already been rumors that Modi might have made a trip to Washington, especially after a planned visit to Paris to the artificial top of Artificial Intelligence Action. Until now, however, the ministry has been silent during the visit to Washington, even if a hail of preparatory actions are clear in the run -up to them.
Irritating substances in advance: dollars and the like
The first winds did not seem good. As chosen President, Trump threatened the rates against the grouping of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and demanded that they leave the talk about leaving the dollar and having a separate currency.
That fear is not continuous. In recent times the group has been expanded with Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt, and some 34 countries have subjected an expression of interest to participate in the block of large emerging economies. The imposition of rates against all would indeed be a challenge, but every movement to de-dollarization will certainly invite a form of American retribution. Until recently, almost 100% of the oil trade was performed in American dollars. But in 2023, a fifth of the oil trade was reportedly made under non-American currency
The BRICS 'Unity' – if it materializes – are supported by a basket with currency of the respective Member States. Among them the Yuan will be the strongest. This is a reality that hardly serves the interests of Delhi. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has since denied the possibility of some support from such steps, indicating that it is neither 'policy nor' strategy 'to consider de-dollarization.
That is the first number one, and a very fast, indicating that India will be in accordance with the American interests -based grouping in a consensus, at least in this case.
The Deportation Spree
The second care is the Trumpian threat to illegal migrants and the armament of rates, which saw Columbia turn on for the first time, but then inserted within a few hours and agrees to take back all migrants without papers. China also bent because nearly five flights sent Chinese immigrants without papers from America.
However, India was quickly from the goal, with Jaishankar in his press interaction and noted that although Delhi wanted 'legal mobility' for his citizens, it was against illegal migration and all the other related threats it entails. The issue was clearly discussed in his meeting with the US State Secretary Marco Rubio, as confirmed an reading. It was addressed 'softly', with the main text that emphasizes the constant cooperation.
Days later, India confirmed that it took 18,000 migrants identified, of which about 205 was sent back to Amritsar, even when orders were given to ensure that bureaucratic procedures were present. The problem is that there is much more where that came from. Last year, American data indicated that around 90,105 people tried to enter the country illegally, with Indians in total around 3% of them. That is a lot, and it is no problem that can be solved easily or quickly.
Those annoying rates do not exist
The recently revealed trade union budget also made some important announcements, which again again the tariff threats of America in advance. It has completed the peak rate rates of 150%, 125% and 100% on the input. These actually apply to only five items, including the controversial Harley Davidson engine bikes and imported Tesla cars (as well as Japanese vehicles and other bicycles). Although the tasks have been reduced, there will continue to be a stop that goes to the center. This can be used flexibly at any time.
In the meantime, import tasks on the top 30 items that are exported by the US to India – cracking oil, coal cabbage, planes and liquid natural gas (already at least) are the best – are in the range of zero to 7.5%. All this is a very good optics, with the data that is apparently shared with American officials, and the message that India is in fact not a 'high rate' country.
And then, China
The positive messages from Washington were also a lot, with Jaishankar as the first top diplomat to meet his counterpart, and the planning of the meeting of the Quad ministers of the ministers immediately after the inauguration that was seen as Trump who strengthens his support of the grouping . That is also a clear signal for China of the White House, that analysts seem to have missed in the midst of all the bonhomy that was seen in the call between President Xi and Trump – including, according to the tweet of the latter, Xi promised to work for A peaceful world.
However, words are cheap. Admittedly, with Trump who promises to 'take over' the Gaza strip in his meeting with Netanyahu from Israel recently, it is unlikely that the focus on the middle will change. It is also true that Trump has to call the Chinese president quickly – this after he had promised 60% rates against Beijing but in the end only 10% imposed. In any case, these rates are actually linked to trade in drugs, something that Beijing also sees as a threat instead of acting. China, in turn, immediately afterwards shot the launch of Deepseek, which ran download graphs at the top and wiped billions of dollars from the Nvidia market, so that the signal that the country can venture in several ways sent in several ways. The actual retribution by Beijing in terms of rates was relatively mild in hard terms. Expect more negotiations ahead.
An unchanging constant
What is not open to negotiation is a constant in the American national security strategy: it unambiguously states that the US does not tolerate competitors or challenges of other powers. This was also Trump's prospects in 2017, and it will probably be even more increased. An emerging China will not be tolerated. And Trump, what he is, will want other forces to increase. This not only includes allies, but also 'friends' such as India. Prepare to get on the board, with – as the Wit House read out – buy more weapons from the US. 'Strategic autonomy' becomes more difficult to maintain, at least in terms of managing Beijing's perception. The point is ultimately that China will be at the front and the center of American policy.
This can be a huge opportunity for India. The proposed US-India Defense Cooperation Act 2024, introduced by Rubio, then a senator, is an example. It treats India on the same footing with American allies and places it on almost the same footing as it in NATO (North Atlantic Convention Organization) in terms of offering defense equipment. However, there is not much about the issue of transferring technology. This point must be added to a future proposal to make it attractive to India and to not only stimulate the Indian defense industry, but also the economy as a whole, on which everything else is based.
And these additions need a Trumpian hill to get past Washington's bureaucracy – something the American president is already fighting. The question now is, is the US president convinced that a strong India is in the interests of America? And is India ready to go the entire pig in the Indo-Pacific in specific military terms?
Those are the two most important questions, and a lot of the friendship between us and India will depend on that. The rest is just window dressing.
(Tara Kartha is a former director of the secretariat of the National Security Council)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
