Can the world’s largest plane ever fly again?

(DailyExpertNews) — The images of the destroyed Antonov AN-225 are now an indelible memory for aviation enthusiasts around the world.

But can the AN-225 ever fly again?

In order to answer that question, first an estimate is needed of the damage sustained by the aircraft.

DailyExpertNews’s Vasco Cotovio got a closer look at the wreckage when he visited Hostomel airport in early April, along with other DailyExpertNews journalists and the Ukrainian National Police.

“Hostomel was the scene of fierce fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops very early in the war,” he says.

“Moscow’s troops were trying to capture the airfield to use it as a forward operational position to which they could fly in additional land units. To do that, they mounted an air raid attack helicopter.

“They seemed to have some success initially, but the Ukrainian response was very quick, hitting the airport quickly and forcefully – to prevent any kind of landing,” he says.

The condition of the aircraft left no doubt about the possibility of a repair.

“The nose of the plane was completely destroyed, apparently the victim of a direct artillery impact,” said Cotovio. “In addition, there was extensive damage to the wings and some engines. The tail section has been spared from major impacts and has a few holes caused by shrapnel or bullets.

“Without the direct hit to the nose, the AN-225 might have been repaired,” he says, adding that the area around the plane was littered with spent ammunition, destroying Russian tanks and trucks and destroying armored vehicles.

A second coming

The AN-225 was created as part of the Soviet space program to carry the Soviet space shuttle “Burane” on its back.

Gilles Leimdorfer/AFP/Getty Images

Andrii Sovenko, an engineer and aviation expert from Kiev who has worked for the Antonov Company since 1987 and flew as part of the technical crew on the AN-225, has compiled a detailed list of the damage by watching a large number of videos and photos of the wreckage (Antonov personnel are not allowed to return to Hostomel yet due to security reasons).

He confirms that the mid-section of the aircraft’s fuselage and nose – including the cockpit and crew rest areas – were destroyed, but it was the aircraft’s systems and equipment that suffered the most critical damage.

“Restoring them will be the hardest,” he says. “This is due to the fact that most of the various electrical systems, pumps and filters used on the AN-225 are all from the 1980s.

“They’re just not made anymore, so it’s unlikely they can be restored exactly the way they were,” he says.

It’s not all bad news: Parts of the wings, including aerodynamic surfaces such as flaps and ailerons, appear to have suffered minor damage, and they could still be salvaged.

Most of the six engines also appear intact, and the entire tail section of the aircraft has only been affected by shrapnel, leaving it in acceptable condition.

The AN-225 sustained major damage during the battle for Hostomel Airport near Kiev.

Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images

“It’s impossible to talk about the repair or restoration of this aircraft – we can only talk about building another Mriya, using individual components salvaged from the wreckage and combining them with the parts that in the 1980s were intended to be used for the construction of a second aircraft.”

“This is a fully finished fuselage, with a new center section already fitted to it, as well as the bearing structure of the wings and tail unit. In other words, almost a complete airframe. As far as I know, it was practically undamaged during the Russian artillery bombardment at the factory,” says Sovenko.

A new design

There’s one big problem with the idea of ​​building out the unused airframe with Hostomel salvageable parts: it still won’t be 100% of the required components.

“It will be impossible to build the exact same aircraft, with the exact same design and equipment,” says Sovenko. If so, Antonov faces two hurdles: allowing new and old components to work together and potentially having to undergo recertification of the aircraft to confirm airworthiness and compliance with current regulations.

The company has experience with the first problem, it has updated many of the AN-225’s systems over the years and replaced the old Soviet technology with modern Ukrainian equivalents, but full certification would take time and increase costs.

Experts say it’s unlikely the original plane will ever be restored to its former glory.

Genya Savilov/AFPGetty Images

Unfortunately, that seems almost inevitable: “There’s no point in building an airplane today with a 40-year-old design,” adds Sovenko. “It is also quite possible that it will be considered appropriate to make additional changes to the aircraft design, based on the operational experience of the original.”

The AN-225 was never designed to carry commercial cargo, and was adapted for this task through extensive work performed by Antonov in the late 1990s. Despite its colossal capacity, the aircraft remained inconvenient to operate from the crew’s point of view. It must be lowered onto its nose — a maneuver known as the “elephant kneel” — to load cargo, which is rolled aboard using modified tracks and pulleys.

Due to its unique design, only the nose of the aircraft opens and it does not have a ramp at the back like its more practical smaller brother, the AN-124. The cargo floor could also use some reinforcement and the degree of compliance of the aircraft with existing airport infrastructure could be increased, adding to the list of desirable improvements in a hypothetical modern version of the aircraft.

Millions or billions?

The AN-225 broke numerous aviation records during its lifetime.

Ronny Hartmann/AFP/Getty Images

“Nothing is known for sure at this point,” says Sovenko, “The cost will depend on how badly the remaining parts of the aircraft are damaged and how much modifications and new equipment will be needed. A large part of the cost will depend on the amount of certification testing deemed necessary. But at least we can guess that the final figure will be in the order of hundreds of millions of dollars, not billions.”

Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst at Aerodynamic Advisory, agrees: “It depends if the plane is just a prototype, or if they want it to go into commercial service with full certification. Sure $500 million or so is more reasonable.” , even with certification, over $3 billion.”

The real question, says Aboulafia, is who would pay for it? “There’s not really any commercial use for this plane, and without it, where would the money come from?”

It’s easy to think that most of the costs would be borne by Antonov, but the company has suffered major losses from the destruction of several other aircraft and facilities; although it still operates at a lower level, its future is uncertain.

“I am an optimist. I sincerely and deeply wish that Antonov aircraft will continue to fly in the future,” says Sovenko, “but I am also a realist. And I fully understand that the cost of the second Mriya will be in must be related to Antonov’s financial capabilities after the war, as well as to the expected income from operating this aircraft.”