We all make mistakes; the question is: do we learn from them? In recent years, people on the left side of the political and cultural spectrum have earned their share. These contributed to Democrats’ extremely bleak political outlook for the midterms. Worse, it’s now quite likely that Donald Trump could win re-election in 2024.
If we want to avoid those kinds of disasters, it might be a good idea to learn a few relevant lessons:
Overstimulation of the economy is possible. Many progressives argued convincingly that Barack Obama was not big enough to stimulate the economy after the financial crisis. It seems that the United States has now grown too big. Inflation is at its highest point in 40 years. Real wages have fallen. Nearly 70 percent of Americans believe the economy is in bad shape.
Much of inflation is driven by global energy and supply chain problems. But at 8.5 percent, inflation in America is a lot higher than in, say, Europe. Some economists estimate that the Democrats’ $1.9 trillion bailout contributed between two and four percentage points to US inflation.
Law and order is not just a racist dog whistle. Yes, from George Wallace to Donald Trump, that rhetoric has been used like a dog whistle. Yes, any discussion of crime and policing must include the outrageous racial inequalities that permeate the system. At the same time, it is true that the primary task of government is to create order so that people can feel safe. Democrats do not have an effective anti-crime stance at a time when crime is on the rise. In New York City, for example, while the homicide rate fell, total crime was up 37 percent in March from a year earlier, thanks to a 59 percent increase in car thefts, a 48 percent increase in robberies and a 40 percent increase in car thefts. percent in burglaries. The number of shootings rose by 16 percent. According to a Gallup poll, 53 percent of Americans now say they worry “a lot” about crime.
Don’t politicize everything. Education has traditionally been a democratic strength. A 2006 Washington Post/ABC News poll found that voters had more than 20 points more confidence in Democrats than Republicans to better handle education. When the Post/ABC poll asked about the matter last November, the advantage was only three points. Part of the decline is likely due to teacher unions’ preference for keeping schools closed during the pandemic, partly possibly to some progressives’ attacks on magnet schools and gifted programs, partly to a perception that progressives care more about their cultural agenda than they do about it. actual education. Republicans have certainly politicized education as well, but for some reason it seems to work for them, while it doesn’t for Democrats.
Border security isn’t just a Republican talking point. During one of the Democratic presidential primary debates in 2019, nearly all candidates on the podium supported the idea of decriminalizing unauthorized border crossings. That signaled that the Democratic Party had moved significantly to the left on immigration. Today, 59 percent of voters believe the US has an “effective” open southern border.
Joe Biden never succumbed to decriminalization like many of his opponents did, but he has yet to find policies that advance progressive goals while allaying the concerns of voters in the border state. Only 38 percent of voters approve of his approach to this issue.
“People of color” is not a thing† It was always strange to create a group identity that included a vast majority of humanity. In this country, the expression “colored people” sometimes encompasses a wide range of different ethnic experiences. It contributes to a simplistic oppressor/oppressed narrative where white Republicans are supposed to be on one side and POC on the other.
That made it harder to anticipate that in 2020 Trump would make the impressive gains among Hispanics that he did. Hispanics are still Democratic, 48 to 23 percent, according to a recent ICR-Miami poll, but their loyalty to Democrats may wane. According to the same poll, more Democratic Hispanics have changed party membership in the past year than Republican Hispanics. More Hispanics agreed than disagreed with the statement “The Democratic Party has been kidnapped by progressives.”
Shortages matter. The Committee on a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the government will spend an average of $545 billion a year over the next nine years paying interest on the national debt. If interest rates rise two percentage points above the Congressional Budget Office projections, the average annual cost of interest will rise by $375 billion. That burden will crowd out spending on all other programs.
The New Deal happened once. Year after year, Democrats think that if they can hand people checks and benefits, they will be rewarded with votes, allowing them to form a dominant-majority coalition. It’s not that simple. I have enthusiastically supported many of these policies, but we live in a time when culture, values and identity issues drive politics at least as much as policy.
The Democrats’ biggest problem is this: we live in an age of fear, uncertainty and disorder on many fronts. The Republicans have traditionally been known as the party of toughness and order. Democrats will need to find an attitude that is tough on disorder and tough on the causes of disorder.