Republican flamethrowers and culture warriors like Donald Trump and Representatives Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene typically attract an inordinate amount of media attention.
Americans may conclude from this that there is a striking, and perhaps unfortunate, relationship between extremism and political success.
But Republicans aren’t hoping for a red wave in the meantime just because norm violation or scandal sells. The truth is far more banal, but also important for parties to internalize and better for politics in general: In states across the country, Republican governors deliver real results for people they are physically closer to than federal officials.
Now it is true that the party that controls the presidency almost always gets the whip in midterm elections, and inflation would be a huge drag on any party in power. And it’s also true that among those governors are culture warriors like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
But people all too often overlook the idea that actual results, especially those related to wallet issues, can often be just as important as rhetoric. Viewed that way, many Republicans excel — some with a high public profile and some who fly under the radar.
Will the Democrats face an interim destruction?
Start with the simplest measure: popularity. Across the country, 13 of the 15 most popular governors are Republicans. That list doesn’t just include red states. In fact, Republican blue-state governors such as Phil Scott of Vermont, Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, and Larry Hogan of Maryland are among the most popular.
There are many reasons why GOP governors seem to succeed. It’s true that governors can’t take credit for everything. Sometimes they are just lucky. But they do make policy choices, and those of executives since the start of Covid in particular have made a difference.
For example, take a look at the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on unemployment. In the 10 states with the lowest rates as of June, eight were led by Republican governors. Several governors who don’t often make the national news stand out, such as Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, Spencer Cox of Utah and Phil Scott of Vermont. Their states have an unemployment rate of less than 2.5 percent, and of the 20 states with the lowest unemployment rates, only four are led by Democrats.
States with Republican governors have also excelled in economic recovery since the start of the pandemic. Notable in this metric are Mr. Abbott and Doug Ducey from Arizona.
These results reflect many things—for example, some states have grown and others have shrunk—but are at least partly the result of policy choices made by their elected leaders since the start of the pandemic. Governors like Kristi Noem in South Dakota, for example, often rejected lockdowns and economic shutdowns.
Republican governors were also much more likely to get kids back to school, despite fierce criticism.
Covid policies don’t explain everything. Tax governance has also made a difference. The Cato Institute’s Fiscal Report Card on US Governors for 2020 (the most recent edition available), which rates them on tax and spending records, gives many Republicans high marks. Almost all the top states in this report have Republican governors, such as Kim Reynolds of Iowa or Mr. Ricketts. (Some Democratic governors also scored highly, including Nevada’s Steve Sisolak and North Carolina’s Roy Cooper.) Some have made their mark with tax cuts that attract employers, others with spending controls, others with a mix.
Most states require a balanced budget, so tax and spending policies are important for fiscal stability. Low taxes tend to attract and retain employers and employees. Limited budgets help ensure that taxes can be kept low without compromising bond ratings, which can be important if debt-financed spending is needed in a crisis or to encourage companies to hire more.
Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas has lowered taxes for individuals, reduced the number of tax brackets and lowered the corporate tax rate. Mr Sununu has curbed spending, vetoed a payroll tax proposal and cut business taxes. Brian Kemp of Georgia, on the other hand, effectively halted a number of planned tax cuts – and focused almost exclusively on spending restraint, issuing a directive for government agencies to implement austerity measures and limit the overall growth of the funds for 2020 to just under 1 percent.
Even in blue Vermont, Mr. Scott — despite being an odd one out among governors because he isn’t constrained by a balanced budget change — the increase in general fund spending between 2017 and 2020 held at an annual average of just 2.4 percent, and he has also lowered taxes. He signed a bill to ensure that the federal tax reform introduced under Mr. Trump and limiting state and local tax deductions would not cause Vermonters to be hammered. He has also lowered individual income tax rates, reduced the number of tax brackets and opposed new payroll taxes in favor of voluntary paid leave schemes for private sector employers.
Republicans who are making a big impact on the day-to-day lives of many Americans – unlike, say, Representative Kevin McCarthy or certainly Mr Trump, and in terms of the quality of state economies, local job markets and education – are delivering. In our federalist system, a lot of power still rests with states and not with the federal government and determines a lot about the lives of citizens.
This is a major reason Republicans are well positioned ahead of the midterm elections. It should be a warning to Joe Biden and the Democrats—and some culture warriors. Cable news battles over whatever the day’s outrage may be can spotlight politicians. But sound economic policies and a focus on work, not theater, deliver basic everyday outcomes that Americans want, need, and will reward.
Liz Mai (@LizMair), a strategist for Scott Walker, Roy Blunt, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry campaigns, is the founder and chairman of Mair Strategies.