Vulnerable incumbent Democratic senators like New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan and Nevada’s Catherine Cortez Masto are already planning events to promote the landmark legislation they passed this weekend. Democratic ad makers are busy preparing a barrage of commercials about it on key battlefields. And the White House will deploy cabinet members for a nationwide sales pitch.
The sweeping legislation covering climate change and prescription drug prices, which converged in the Senate after more than a year of painful public fits and starts, has kicked off a frenetic 91-day sprint to deliver the package by November. sell – and a voter who has become skeptical of democratic rule.
For months, Democrats have discussed their mid-term concerns in almost apocalyptic terms, as voters threatened to let their anger over high gas prices and rising inflation come to power. But the deal over the broad-based new legislation, along with signs of a rising voter uprising against abortion rights, has left some Democrats feeling a hint of an unfamiliar feeling: hope.
“This bill gives Democrats that centerpiece achievement,” said Ali Lapp, the chairman of House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC.
In interviews, Democratic strategists, advisers to President Biden, lawmakers sitting in competitive seats, and political advertisers all expressed optimism that the legislation — the Inflation Reduction Act — would provide the party with a necessary and powerful tool to show they were targeted. on cutting costs at a time of economic hardship for many. They argued that key provisions could be quickly understood by crucial constituencies.
“It’s easy to talk about because it has a real impact on people every day,” Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, the White House deputy chief of staff, said in an interview. The measure still has to pass the House of Representatives and could be put to a vote there later this week. “It’s Congressional Democrats who made it happen — without help from Congressional Republicans.”
For younger voters, who have remained cool to Mr Biden and his party according to polls, the package contains the most sweeping efforts to tackle climate change in US history. For older voters, the deal includes popular measures Democrats have been seeking for decades to curb the price of prescription drugs for seniors on Medicare. And for both the Democratic base and the independents, the deal cuts across the Republican argument that a Democrat-controlled Washington is a morass of incompetence and a stalemate that doesn’t focus on issues that affect average Americans.
“It’s very important because it shows that the Democrats care about solving problems, it shows that we can get things done and I think it’s starting to change some of the talk about Biden,” said Representative Dina Titus , a Nevada Democrat in a competitive reelection race, hinting at fears about the president as his national approval score hovers around 40 percent.
Adding to the Democratic Party’s illuminating prospects were the results of the Kansas referendum on abortion rights last week, when a measure allegedly removing abortion protections from the Kansas Constitution was overwhelmingly defeated. It was a stark reminder of the fleeting and unpredictable political impact of the Supreme Court’s destruction of Roe v. Wade.
“I can kind of feel it on the street that there’s some change in momentum,” Ms Titus said.
In recent days, Democrats have been ahead of Republicans for the first time this year when voters were asked which party they would most prefer to control Congress — the so-called generic vote test — according to polls tracked by data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.
There is no guarantee of success in selling the account. Last year, the White House navigated a rare bipartisan infrastructure deal. But its passage, which caused much commotion in Washington, did little to stop the continued decline in Mr Biden’s approval ratings — and many Americans were still unaware that the measure was passed months later, it found. polls.
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Republicans say the new legislation could bolster their own footing against a vast progressive wish list that’s been decades in the making, just as the passage of the Affordable Care Act predated the 2010 Republican wave.
“That’s the kind of thing that could really put a spark in the powder keg — in the same way that the midnight passage of Obamacare was the moment that electrified Republican voters and really started pulling independents in our direction,” said Steven Law. , who leads the main Republican super PAC devoted to Senate racing.
Republican attacks on legislation – for boosting the Internal Revenue Service, for creating a green energy “slush fund”, as Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton has done called itand for expanding spending programs despite the bill’s Inflation Reduction Act title – have already begun.
Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson, who is listed as the most vulnerable Republican in the chamber in November, dismissed the package, which he voted against, as “giving bad policies a nice name.” But Mr. Johnson’s likely Democratic opponent, Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, immediately indicated that he intended to make voting around the legislation a focus in the general election. in particular focus on insulin costs.
Advisers to both Mr Biden and New York Majority Leader Senator Chuck Schumer said a key difference between this package and the infrastructure package is that the party votes on this deal were primed for the kind of contrast messages that campaigns thrive on. After the president signs the bill, Building Back Together, a nonprofit affiliated with Mr. Biden, is planning a major television and digital ad purchase in multiple battlefield states.
The provision that Democrats in competitive races seem most excited about is the government’s long-sought ability to negotiate with the pharmaceutical industry to lower drug prices for Medicare recipients. And Democrats said the legislation would help tackle the rising cost of living — a defining issue of 2022.
“We’re dealing with significant economic challenges that people are facing, and it’s reflected in the legislation we’ve passed,” said Michigan Senator Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senate campaign arm. He called the measure central to democratic reporting in the latest campaign process, and crucial for crystallizing the choice between the parties.
The legislation will be paid in part by a new minimum corporate tax rate of 15 percent for companies that report more than $1 billion in annual income to shareholders and more resources for the IRS to take action against wealthy tax evaders. Overall, budget analysts predicted that the deficit would narrow the deficit, even if nearly $400 billion in tax credits were sent to consumers for buying electric vehicles and for electric utilities to use renewables.
Some experts predict lower utility bills, which the top Democrats said they plan to pitch as another cost-cutting element.
For Democrats, the best sellers may not be the political leaders at all. For example, advocacy groups for seniors might be able to more convincingly proclaim the government’s ability to negotiate lower drug prices — and the New Hampshire AARP director would join Ms. Hassan at an event highlighting the new efforts. were discussed to lower the prices of prescription drugs. Likewise, environmentalists who have long expressed frustration over inaction in Washington would be far more credible with liberal voters to declare the package a milestone, even if it’s imperfect.
“While there’s an inside-the-DC bubble to say you’ve done something great, voters should appreciate it if you sell each of the things individually,” said Michael Podhorzer, the AFL’s former political director. -CIO
In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock, one of the chamber’s most threatened Democrats in 2022, may be campaigning for the final package to include provisions of legislation he pushed, such as the $2,000 global annual cap on prescription drugs for drugs. those on Medicare – a problem he advertised, even if it was just a proposal.
In Arizona, Senator Mark Kelly and two other Western Democratic senators — Ms. Cortez Masto and Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, all up for re-election in 2022 — announced the last-minute addition of $4 billion in drought funding on Friday.
“When it comes to legislation, I’m a big believer in the school that if a campaign doesn’t communicate about it — on television, online, etc. — it’s not real,” said JB Poersch, who leads the main Democratic super Senate PAC, which has set aside more than $100 million worth of television ads in the coming months.
And this package, he said, more than meets that test: cutting drug costs, limiting insulin prices for Medicare recipients, and protecting the subsidies in the Affordable Care Act that lower premiums — which Republicans opposed. . “That’s a pretty good argument if you ask me,” he said.
A new poll released last week by Data for Progress, a left-wing think tank, showed why Democrats love to talk about prescription drugs, specifically: Allowing Medicare to lower drug prices through negotiation was outrageous. popular, with 85 percent support.
But the survey had warning signs for Democrats. Only 45 percent of likely voters said they believed the overall package would improve their own “family outcomes” at least somewhat or largely.
Some frontline Democrats were reluctant on Monday to say the political climate has changed significantly. With the president’s approval ratings still appalling, they begged the White House to do its part, with advertisements and barnstorming to highlight the string of recent successes, including a bipartisan bill that would increase America’s competitiveness against China in the field. of manufacturing and technology and to ensure medical care for veterans exposed to toxic burns.
Representative Susan Wild, a Pennsylvania Democrat who operates in a competitive district, praised many aspects of the legislation, especially regarding the climate and some health care facilities.
But, she warned, “I always think we should be careful about promising too much.”
She added: “It’s a very important bill, don’t get me wrong. But at the same time, you should always temper your enthusiasm with a huge dose of reality so that people don’t think it will cost less the next time they fill their prescription.”
Jonathan Weisman reporting contributed.