Maybe it’s because I’m a former high school debater, but every few weeks I try to imagine what I’d be writing the day after an election — if either party won.
It can be an enlightening exercise. I did this every few weeks before the 2016 general election, and I was always struck by how easy it was to write a plausible post-election story explaining how and why Donald J. Trump would win the election. This year, it was also pretty easy to imagine how the Democrats would fare. In any case, it made it easy to explain the final result, even if each case seemed less likely than not.
Georgia’s runoff today is a very different case. The election seems about as close — if not closer — than those other contests. But if Republican Herschel Walker wins, I don’t know how to explain it. I should shrug.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he can’t win. Surprises happen. Sometimes a football team with a great record loses to a team that hasn’t won a single game yet, even though there’s no good reason to expect it.
And in some ways, a “surprise” down the drain wouldn’t require anything fancy. The polls show a tight race, with the incumbent Democrat, Raphael Warnock, leading by about three percentage points. Similarly, Mr Walker trailed by less than a percentage point in the November 8 election results, and historically the second electorate has been more conservative at times. By those measures, Mr. Walker wouldn’t need much to win.
What you need to know about Georgia’s Senate runoff
Another drain in Georgia. The contest between Sen. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, and his Republican opponent, Herschel Walker, will be decided in a runoff on December 6. It will be the third Senate round in two years. Watch the match here:
But it’s hard to think of good reasons why Mr. Walker would do better in the runoff than he did a month ago, even if on any given Tuesday any candidate could win.
The core problem for Mr. Walker is simple: he is a flawed and unpopular candidate, while Mr. Warnock, on the other hand, is quite popular. And unlike the November election, the two are the only candidates on the ballot in most of the state. This poses a much greater challenge to Mr Walker in the second round than in the general election.
It’s easy to imagine different kinds of voters who supported Mr. Walker in November, but who don’t show up this time. There’s the Republican that Mr. Walker didn’t like, but he showed up to vote for another Republican — like Brian Kemp in the gubernatorial race. There’s the Republican who balked at Mr. Walker would vote if the Senate were on the line — as it appeared to be in November — but doesn’t think the stakes are high enough to support someone 57 percent of voters say doesn’t have a strong voice. moral values, according to the AP VoteCast survey.
Even worse for Mr. Walker, there is reason to believe that these challenges have gotten worse since the November 8 election. Mr. Warnock has far surpassed him on television. The polls now show that Mr Warnock is doing even better than in the polls leading up to the November election.
Final turnout data from the November election also raises the possibility that it will be challenging for Mr Walker to enjoy a more favorable turnout than last month. Turnout among previous Republican primary voters was higher than that of the Democrats, not least because the black share of the electorate fell to its lowest level since 2006. Indeed, the Republican candidates won the most votes for the U.S. House and the other state offices.
More on the Georgia Senate runoff
- How Walker was able to win: Despite the steady stream of harsh headlines for Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee, he was able to prevail. Here’s how.
- Warnock’s record: An electric car factory outside of Savannah could be the most significant achievement for Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock. But the Republicans don’t give him credit.
- Mixed feelings: The contest may have been a showcase of black political power in the Deep South. But many black voters say Mr Walker’s turbulent campaign marred the moment.
- Insulin prices: The issue is nowhere near as controversial as just about everything else raised in the race. But in a state with a high rate of diabetes, it has proven to be a resonant topic.
In other words, there’s an argument that last month’s electorate represented something more like a best-case scenario for Mr. Walker in elections with a high turnout. He still didn’t win. Conversely, the early vote estimates raise the possibility that there is a significant advantage for Mr Warnock if the electorate is a bit more like that of past cycles. By our estimates, the electorate is arguably consistent with numbers a few points better for Democrats than they were in November.
Despite a shortened early voting period, nearly two million voters in Georgia cast their ballots ahead of today’s election. By our estimates, Mr. Warnock won these voters in November, 59-41, likely giving him a lead of nearly 400,000 votes.
Black voters represented 32 percent of the early vote, up from 29 percent in November.
But it’s hard to read too much into the early voting numbers. The limited voting period of one week makes it impossible to compare the results directly with those of previous years. And there is no hard, factual basis to say that Mr. Walker cannot make up his deficit on Election Day.
In fact, early voting and Election Day results are highly correlated — in the opposite direction. The better a party performs in early voting, the worse it performs on Election Day. But there is no question that these numbers exceed all reasonable expectations of the Democrats. As far as sending a signal, it’s a good signal for Mr. Warnock.
The race may be close, but it’s hard to think of a good signal for Mr. Walker.
