Officials from at least 90 countries are expected in Beijing on October 17 for a two-day diplomatic festival. The occasion is a summit hosted by Xi Jinping, China’s president, to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), his most ambitious foreign policy program. It involves China financing billions of dollars in investments in roads, railways and other infrastructure in Eurasia and Africa. China claims the BRI has created 420,000 jobs and lifted 40 million people out of poverty. But many in the West think its real purpose is to build a Chinese-led world order in which unsavory regimes can thrive. The guest list for this week’s summit resembles a rogues’ gallery. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will play a leading role. Several other strongmen have confirmed their presence. Even the Taliban are sending a delegation. Will China’s BRI fund international development or strengthen autocracy?
Launched in 2013 as “one belt, one road,” the BRI quickly became a clear expression of Xi’s determination to break with Deng Xiaoping’s dictum to “hide our capabilities and bide our time; never try to take the lead.” It seeks to turn Eurasia (dominated by China) into an economic and trade area that can rival the transatlantic region (dominated by America). By investing in infrastructure, Xi hoped to create new markets for Chinese companies, such as high-speed rail companies, and export some of his country’s vast excess capacity of cement, steel and other metals. By investing in unstable countries in Central Asia, he sought to create a more stable neighborhood for China’s own restive western regions of Xinjiang and Tibet. And by encouraging more Chinese projects around the South China Sea, the initiative aimed to strengthen Chinese claims in that area (the ‘road’ in ‘belt and road’ refers to sea routes).
In many ways, the BRI’s first decade has been a surprising success. . than 150 countries have signed the program, including 18 of the 27 EU member states. That has helped China become the developing world’s largest creditor, increasing its diplomatic and geopolitical influence. It has also brought tangible benefits to many developing countries where roads and railways would otherwise have remained undeveloped.
Yet the BRI’s progress has slowed. During the early years of the program, China lent recklessly to poor countries without making proper risk assessments. Many of these loans have now hit the market, forcing Beijing to become more cautious. Chinese foreign lending has been declining since 2016. Xi says it will now focus on “small but big” investments – a marked change of tone for a program he once referred to as the “project of the century”. Domestic disillusionment partly explains this shift: China’s faltering economy has made lavish spending abroad less popular among ordinary citizens. Other countries have also become more reluctant to work with China as global rivalry with America intensifies. The EU has tightened rules around foreign investment in critical infrastructure, citing national security concerns. Italy, the only G7 member to join the BRI, is expected to withdraw.
The BRI may slow its advance and moderate its objectives. But it remains a crucial part of Xi’s long-term goal of uniting the global South around China’s democratic development model. Ten years ago, Western countries were slow to recognize the significance of the project. They are now trying to offer alternatives. Plans for a transport corridor connecting India with the Middle East and Europe were unveiled last month at the G20 summit in Delhi. America has promised to increase lending to developing countries through the World Bank. China’s BRI has encountered some bumps in the road. Yet it had already changed the direction of the world’s travel.
