The election of the Speaker of the House on the floor of the chamber is usually a largely ceremonial exercise with no surprises.
But if Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican leader, is unable to put down an uprising among a group of hard-right lawmakers before Tuesday’s vote, the result could be a whirlwind of chaos not seen in a century. more on the House floor has been seen. .
Mr McCarthy has pledged to fight to the end for the speakership on the House floor, even if lawmakers have to vote more than once.
Every speaker since 1923 has been able to grab the gavel after just one vote, but there is a precedent in the House’s long history of turbulent elections. For example, in 1855, choosing a speaker took two months and 133 ballots to produce Massachusetts Representative Nathaniel P. Banks the winner, reflecting a house divided by antebellum factions.
Here’s what you need to know about the election.
How does choosing a new speaker work?
On the first day of the new House meeting, choosing a new speaker is the first matter lawmakers should address. It happens even before newly elected representatives are sworn in and needs to be resolved before other matters resume.
Lawmakers will meet on the House floor and leaders from each party will nominate a candidate to speak. In this case, the Republicans will nominate Mr. McCarthy and the Democrats will nominate Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader.
The clerk then proceeds to an alphabetical roll-call vote. To vote, lawmakers must answer with a name. That could be Mr. McCarthy, Mr. Jeffries — or, if they want to put in some sort of protest vote, any name of their choosing.
A new US Congress is taking shape
After the 2022 midterm elections, the Democrats retained control of the Senate, while the Republicans flipped the House.
Capitol Hill residents often use shorthand, saying the threshold to become a speaker is 218 votes, or a simple majority. But it’s not that simple: House precedents dictate that choosing a speaker requires a majority of votes cast by members “for a named person.”
That means Mr. McCarthy could still win the speakership, even if he doesn’t get 218 votes, by persuading lawmakers who don’t want to vote for him to vote “present” instead or miss the vote altogether.
That is not an unusual occurrence. In 2015, John Boehner was elected speaker by 216 votes, as was Nancy Pelosi in 2021.
If Mr. McCarthy is unable to muster the votes needed to become speaker, lawmakers would proceed to a second ballot – meaning they would have to hold another roll call vote. The last time that happened was in 1923, when the speaker was chosen after nine ballots and feverish rounds of behind-the-scenes haggling.
What happens if McCarthy falls short?
Because it is so rare for a speaker election to require more than one vote, there is little modern precedent for managing the chaos that could ensue. But there are a few clear options available to lawmakers.
If Mr. McCarthy failed to win the gavel on the first ballot, he and his allies would most likely begin horse-trading with rebel lawmakers on the House floor or in the cloakroom to try and win their support. Some Republicans have privately noted that it could become apparent sooner than usual if Mr. McCarthy falls short on the first ballot, as a number of lawmakers who have vowed to oppose him will be called up early in the alphabetical ballot.
At the same time, other lawmakers could throw their hats in the ring as potential consensus candidates. Or Republican full members could try to push one of their colleagues to run if it turns out that no amount of persuasion will get Mr. McCarthy the votes he needs.
A legislator could offer a solution to the election process, such as lowering the voting threshold needed to become a speaker and approving a multiple winner.
Lawmakers can also try to interrupt the vote and file a motion to adjourn. This requires the consent of a majority of the House: 218 votes.
Unless they move to adjournment, legislators will have to keep voting until a speaker is elected.
A deadlock can lead to many more rounds of voting.
Of the more than 120 times since 1789 that the House has elected a new speaker, only 14 have been cases where the process required multiple ballots, according to the Congressional Research Service.
Mr. Banks’ protracted elevation to speaker — a process that began in 1855 and ended in 1856 — has been likened by the House historian’s office to a “recurring nightmare.”
The first ballot began on a Monday in December 1855, with legislators having four votes that day. There were “five more on Tuesday, six more on Wednesday, another six on Thursday, six again on Friday and six more on Saturday,” the agency said.
Mr. Banks was not elected until early February 1856, a period when no other congressional business was settled. The play included a three-hour question-and-answer session for speaker candidates on the spread of slavery to the Western Territories.
The speaker’s race ended only after lawmakers, no doubt exhausted from their marathon voting sessions, passed a resolution that created a multiple winner. mr. Banks won by just 103 votes.