Not everyone is so pessimistic. But for those tasked with solving the conundrum of the Democrats’ midterms, the question is increasingly: How many seats can they save? Senate control has stalled at 50-50, with Democrats holding on to a five-seat majority in the House. Few Democratic strategists expect to keep the House, but many remain hopeful about the Senate, where there is much more room for candidates to polish their own independent brands.
A guide to the 2022 midterm elections
When Jim Kessler, the executive vice president for policy at Third Way, a center-left think tank, recently went through the mid-term review before a presentation to Democratic strategists and Hill Democrats, he found that the party in power typically lost about 10 percentage points during cycle elections.
That suggested two major takeaways, he said. First, the Democratic Party’s current struggles are perfectly normal by historical standards. And second, even candidates in safe-blue political areas should brace themselves for tough campaigns.
“If you’re a district that’s Biden plus 12 or less” — meaning the president won that particular House district by that many percentage points in 2020 — “you have to run like you’re losing,” Kessler said.
Wealthy donors in Silicon Valley are turning their attention to offices they’ve traditionally ignored: attorneys general, governors and secretaries of state in parts of the country that could determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, Republican candidates who align with Donald Trump have contested the 2020 election results and promoted dubious “audits” and conspiracy theories about voting machines. The widespread fear among donors is that, if those Trump allies are elected, they will find illegitimate ways to ensure that he returns to power in 2024.
With the prospects for Democrats in Washington looking bleak, Mehlhorn advises donors to look for ways to prevent and disrupt full Republican control in those states.