The president nevertheless continued the trip, visiting Israel alone. But the worsening situation of Palestinians in Gaza and the danger of increasing escalation starkly illustrate the difficulty of the path he is trying to follow: showing his love for Israel while protecting civilians in the Gaza Strip; support Israel’s retaliation while limiting its excesses; Excluding Hamas while pointing to an alternative path to a Palestinian state; Deter Iran and its allies while persuading Arab allies to help.
The explosion at Gaza’s Ahli Arab hospital, some time after 7 p.m. on October 17, was a shock but not a surprise. Thousands of civilians took shelter on the grounds, next to the sick, hoping that the institution would offer them some protection. Israel has bombed Gaza with unprecedented brutality since Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the area, massacred Israeli communities around Gaza on October 7, killing more than 1,400 people and kidnapping around 200. . than 3,000 Palestinians have been killed so far. About 600,000 Gazans have fled their homes, partly in response to Israel’s call for Palestinians to leave the northern half of the territory, including the main urban center, Gaza City. Israel has cut off supplies of food, water, electricity and fuel.
Israeli forces said the explosion at the hospital was caused by a defective rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a separate militant group. Some open intelligence analysts suggested it happened when a Palestinian missile exploded in midair – perhaps intercepted by Israeli air defense systems – and the warhead fell on the hospital. Most of the Arab world was convinced it was an Israeli attack.
Chaos ensues in West Bank cities, where large street protests threaten the stability of the fragile Palestinian Authority, Hamas’ nationalist rival, and its leader Mahmoud Abbas. He canceled his meeting with Mr Biden in Amman. When he returned to Ramallah, he declared three days of national mourning. Within hours, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said there was no point in “talking about anything now other than stopping the war.”
In a statement, Biden said he was “outraged and deeply saddened” by the deaths at Ahli Arab Hospital. By continuing with his trip, he is giving Israel the benefit of the doubt, but has instructed officials to “continue gathering information on what exactly is happening.” A White House official said the president planned to hold personal consultations “soon” to the Arab leaders and that he agreed to remain in touch in the coming days.
Mr. Biden takes the position that Israel has suffered “barbarism as consequential as the Holocaust,” as he put it in a television interview on October 15. According to him, Israel has the right and obligation to destroy Hamas, and America will do so too. The country can provide the military equipment it needs. A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is already in the eastern Mediterranean and a second is on its way. Cargo planes transport military supplies.
Large billboards have appeared on Tel Aviv’s main highway reading “Thank you, Mr. President.” Israelis also noticed that the president spoke to the families of American hostages taken by Hamas before the Israeli prime minister contacted the Israeli. Emotionally and politically, Mr. Biden hopes to have a greater ability to rein in his response, reduce civilian casualties and thereby limit the backlash in the Arab world and beyond.
Antony Blinken, his secretary of state, has been commuting extensively through the Middle East ahead of Biden’s trip, making 10 stops in seven countries in five days. According to reports, he refused to confirm Biden’s arrival until he secured Israeli permission to establish a humanitarian corridor between Gaza and Egypt, and possibly create one or more safe zones for civilians. Because there is a shortage of fresh water, these have not yet been realized. Biden hopes to remove the remaining obstacles.
As Arab outrage grows, so does the risk of escalation outside Gaza. Even before the hospital explosion, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who has also toured the region, warned of an impending escalation. “Time is running out very quickly,” he said on Iranian state television on October 16. “If the war crimes against the Palestinians are not stopped immediately, multiple fronts will open and that is inevitable.” He also threatened unspecified “preventive action.” Israel is particularly concerned about the danger of an opening on the northern front if Hezbollah, a powerful Lebanese Shiite militia closely linked to Iran, joins the fight.
The deployment of the US Navy – and the presence of Biden himself – are intended as a strong signal of deterrence to Iran and its allies. Mr. Blinken said among Mr. Biden’s other goals is to help secure the release of the roughly 200 people held hostage by Hamas and receive “a comprehensive briefing on Israel’s war objectives and strategy.”
“Nothing replaces direct face-to-face conversations when you’re in a crisis,” says Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank in Washington, DC. In addition to talking to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and other leaders, Mr. Biden will want to connect emotionally with the Israeli public, Mr. Miller says. “Biden is more popular in Israel than at home. The Israeli public has lost a lot of confidence in their own leadership, even before this crisis, and they are looking to Biden for reassurance.”
Intentional or not, Biden’s visit means that Israel’s ground operation is unlikely to begin for another few days, amid fears that the US president might give the green light to what could be a particularly destructive phase of the war. An unspoken goal will be to talk to Israeli leaders about the “day after,” says David Makovsky of the Washington Institute, another think tank. This includes strengthening the Palestinian Authority (PA), dominated by Hamas’ nationalist rival Fatah. He was expelled from Gaza in 2007 but still controls autonomous parts of the West Bank. “You need an interim government of Arab governments that will ultimately leave its hands to the Palestinian Authority,” Mr. Makovsky argues. “It won’t be easy for them.”
The cancellation of the Amman summit only makes the problems worse. Most Arab leaders despise Hamas, the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, but dare not stand up to the Palestinians – especially at a time of bloodshed. Mr Biden will also want to signal his commitment to a ‘two-state solution’, that is, the creation of a Palestinian state. In his interview, Mr. Biden provided few details about his vision for the region’s future, but he did outline some details. He said it “would be a big mistake” if Israel continued its occupation of Gaza after the fighting. He also made it clear that there had to be “a path to a Palestinian state,” even if it did not happen quickly.
The president faces conflicting political pressures at home. While the center of the Democratic party supports Israel, the left is sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Republicans denounce his various attempts to improve relations with Iran, a Hamas sponsor, and will be ready to address any hesitation in the administration’s support for Israel.
Whether the sympathy of both parties for Israel extends to the willingness to fight militarily alongside Israel is more questionable. Asked whether U.S. troops in the region would be ordered into action, Biden said: “I don’t think that’s necessary. Israel has one of the best armed forces in the world. He also emphasized that there is “no clear evidence” that Iran planned or approved Hamas’s murderous attack.
Israeli leaders like to say that they do not expect troops from other countries to fight on Israel’s behalf. And Mr. Biden, for his part, has sought to end America’s “endless wars” in the Muslim world, not start a new one. Nevertheless, if the fighting spreads beyond Gaza, he may feel that more direct American intervention is necessary. The US military involvement has been discussed between US and Israeli officials, Axios reports, adding that a legal justification could be the need to protect US citizens in Israel. […] have made it clear to our enemies that if they consider joining the attack on Israel, there will be American involvement and that Israel will not stand alone,” said Israel’s National Security Advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi.
Biden will also manage the crisis with an eye on America’s major rivals: Russia, a traditional ally of several Arab regimes; and China, a newer partner that buys much of the region’s oil and likes to portray itself as a friend of the non-Western world. Both hope to exploit popular Arab anger against Israel and America.
To compete, Biden will need Congress to return to some semblance of normalcy soon. The legislature has been paralyzed by infighting among Republicans in the House of Representatives, who have yet to agree on a replacement for Kevin McCarthy, the ousted speaker. Until then, they likely won’t be able to pass spending bills — including aid to Ukraine and Israel.
Biden is confident that America can support his friends in both wars and beyond. “We are the United States of America, for God’s sake, the most powerful nation in the history of the world […] We can take care of both and still maintain our overall international defense.”
© 2023, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. Original content can be found at www.economist.com
