LAS VEGAS — In 2010, Nevada Senator Harry Reid hit back a scarlet wave and bleak national predictions for his political career when he won a reelection victory against a Tea Party-backed candidate. He was a Democratic powerhouse with name recognition, combative instincts, and a state political machine long in the making.
Twelve years later, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who replaced him in Congress, finds himself in a re-election battle against the Trump wing of the Republican Party in November. But Ms. Cortez Masto is not as well known as her Senate predecessor and mentor, the so-called Reid Machine is not as strong as it was during his tenure, and Democrats face an even more difficult national political landscape.
“When you add all that up, this is why Nevada’s Senate race is one of the most competitive races in the country,” said Mike Noble, a pollster who works in the state.
Ms. Cortez Masto, the former state attorney general, easily won the Democratic nomination in Tuesday’s primaries. But she remains one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators this season as she prepares for a general election contest against Adam Laxalt, a Republican who has embraced former President Donald J. Trump’s baseless claims about a 2020 election stolen.
A combination of local, national and personal challenges confronts her in a high-profile race — state voting trends favoring Republicans, a national climate that works against Democratic incumbents, and her own tendency to stay out of the spotlight and behind the scenes. operate screens.
But she and her supporters point to her previous hard-fought victories, most recently in 2016, when she defeated her Republican rival by 2 percentage points to become the first Latina elected to the Senate.
“I’ve always had tough races,” Ms Cortez Masto said in an interview in February.
In Nevada, the influential network of seasoned agents, field organizers, and volunteers that for years has fueled crucial Democratic victories continues to be a major factor in state politics. It now features a newer crop of progressive groups. But the loss of Mr Reid, who died in December 2021 after a battle with pancreatic cancer, has been felt hard.
President Biden won Nevada by just 2 percentage points in the 2020 election. Ms. Cortez Masto will now have to overcome the president’s low ratings and voter dissatisfaction with the economy. Nevada, whose sprawling hotel and entertainment industry relies heavily on tourism, was among the states hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic, and high unemployment rates and rising costs of living have opened Democrats to a constant Republican attack on crime, jobs and inflation.
“In November, voters will see prices at the pump, see inflation when they go to the grocery store and know they owe it to Catherine Cortez Masto,” said Jeremy Hughes, a Republican campaign adviser. to Dean Heller, the former Republican senator.
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The elections will largely depend on who comes to the polls. Mr Reid’s political machinery had been pivotal in mobilizing multiracial coalitions of workers and Latino voters. But the sharp declines in Democratic participation in Nevada’s midterm elections have recently given Republicans an advantage. The state’s temporary population also makes it difficult for political candidates and elected officials to build brand awareness.
“The challenge for everyone on the Nevada ticket is turnout,” said Representative Dina Titus, a Democrat facing her own tough reelection for her place in Las Vegas this year.
Mr. Laxalt has largely focused on improving his base through voter outrage over undocumented immigrants, the economy and pandemic school closures and restrictions. He has already started attacking Ms Cortez Masto as a vulnerable incumbent in line with the policies of the Biden administration.
The grandson of a former Nevada senator and son of a former New Mexico senator, Mr. Laxalt, co-chaired the 2020 Trump campaign in Nevada, leading Mr. Trump’s efforts to launch the 2020 election. to undo the state. He was supported by both Mr. Trump as Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, two of the most popular figures in the Republican Party.
In a memo released the day after Tuesday’s primaries, Scott Fairchild, Ms. Cortez Masto’s campaign manager, portrayed Mr Laxalt as a corrupt politician and “an anti-abortion extremist” focused on promoting the “big lie” by Mr Trump. Her supporters view him as a flawed candidate, pointing to his failed bid for governor in 2018 and his attempt to block a federal investigation as attorney general into some of his wealthiest donors, including the Koch brothers.
At campaign rallies and in interviews with Fox News and on conservative podcasts, Mr. Laxalt has repeatedly attempted to tie Ms. Cortez Masto to Biden’s policies, criticizing her on crime, inflation and immigration. In a statement, Laxalt campaign communications director John Burke called criticism from his Democratic opponent a distraction from Ms. Cortez Masto’s role in the “current economic catastrophe.”
“Our state wants change and the people of Nevada know it’s impossible to get it with her,” he said.
Despite the change in Nevada’s political environment, many Democrats still see a roadmap for success for Ms. Cortez Masto in Mr. Reid’s successful 2010 campaign for a fifth term against Sharron Angle, a former state legislator who has made allegations of voter fraud and hardship. anti-immigrant rhetoric long before Mr. Trump did.
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Why are these intermediate races so important? This year’s races could tip the balance of power in Congress to Republicans, shattering President Biden’s agenda for the second half of his term. They will also test former President Donald J. Trump’s role as GOP kingmaker. Here’s what you need to know:
Then, as now, national pundits and strategists bemoaned the Democratic incumbent’s low chances of success. Then, as now, Nevada Democrats struggled with a struggling economy after the recession of 2008. And then, as now, the most conservative opponent had won the Republican primaries.
“Harry Reid was a unique politician who only appears once in a generation, but Catherine Cortez Masto is a powerhouse in her own right,” said Andres Ramirez, a political strategist who helped review Mr. Reid from 2010 election campaign.
Central to Mr Reid’s win over Ms Angle were Latino voters, who actively courted both Mr Laxalt and Ms Cortez Masto.
Polling by two Democratic organizations, Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund, suggests Ms. Cortez Masto has the upper hand for now. A survey of 600 Latino voters in Nevada in May found that the senator had higher ratings among people who speak Spanish, and that candidates in the “America First” guise of Mr. Trump were highly unpopular.
The poll indicated that Ms. Cortez Masto “has a chance to build a solid support bench,” said Kristian Ramos, a political adviser and former Reid collaborator who worked on the polls.
At polls in Las Vegas on Tuesday, several Latino voters who spoke Spanish were quick to support Ms. Cortez Masto.
“When I took citizenship classes, our instructor spoke of her beautifully and often told us how she fights a lot for Hispanics and for women,” said Oneida Villaseñor, 45, who cleans houses, after casting her vote for Ms. Cortez Masto. “As soon as I became a citizen, I wanted to vote for her.”
Matt Guild, 65, a retired electrician, stood outside a community center in West Las Vegas and saw her very differently. He associated the senator with the Biden administration’s national policies that he described as out of step with his conservative values.
“She’s definitely going to fight,” he said.
