With President Biden’s endorsement in the 1930s and nearly 80 percent of voters saying the country is heading in the wrong direction, all the ingredients seem to be there for a Republican victory in November’s midterm elections.
But Democrats and Republicans are starting the campaign in a surprisingly close race for control of Congress, according to the first DailyExpertNews/Siena College poll of the cycle.
Overall, 41 percent of registered voters said they preferred Democrats over Congress, compared with 40 percent who preferred Republican control.
Among likely voters, Republicans led by one percentage point, 44 percent to 43 percent, reflecting the propensity for the powerless party to enjoy a voter turnout advantage mid-election.
The results suggest that the spate of mass shootings and the recent Supreme Court decision to overthrow Roe v. Wade have at least temporarily isolated Democrats from an otherwise hostile national political environment, while destroying the predominantly liberal activist base of provided the party with energy.
But the confluence of economic troubles and resurgent cultural issues has helped to turn the emerging class divide in the Democratic coalition into a chasm as Republicans appear to be making new breakthroughs among non-white and working-class voters — perhaps especially Hispanic. voters – who are more concerned about the economy and inflation than about abortion rights and guns.
For the first time in a National Times/Siena poll, Democrats had a higher share of support among white college graduates than non-white voters — a striking indication of the shifting balance of political energy in the Democratic coalition. In the 2016 congressional election, Democrats won more than 70 percent of non-white voters, while losing to white college graduates.
With four months to go until the election, it’s far too early to say whether the campaign will stay focused on issues like abortion and gun control long enough for Democrats to avoid a much-anticipated defeat in the medium term. If so, a close national vote would likely translate into a close race for control of Congress, as neither side has a clear structural advantage in the race. Partisan gerrymandering has tilted the map somewhat toward Republicans in the House, but Democrats are enjoying the benefits of established names and superior fundraising in key districts.
Recent unfavorable news for Democrats, in the form of Supreme Court rulings, and some tragic news at the national level could normally cause problems for the party in power, but that’s not what the results suggest.
Read more about the end of Roe v. Wade
The investigation began 11 days after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, when cell phones were still buzzing with news reports of the mass shooting in Highland Park, Illinois.
In an open-ended question, those who voluntarily stated that gun, abortion or the Supreme Court issues were the most important issue facing the country, together represented about one in six registered voters. Those voters preferred Democratic control of Congress, 68 percent to 8 percent.
Some of the hot-button cultural issues thought to be in favor of Republicans at the beginning of the cycle, such as critical race theory, have faded from the spotlight. Only 4 percent of voters combined said education, crime or immigration are the top problems facing the country.
The Times/Siena poll isn’t the first to suggest that the national political climate for Democrats has improved since the Supreme Court overthrown Roe. On average, Democrats scored about three points on the general congressional vote compared to pre-conducted polls.
In the wake of the court’s ruling, the poll shows that there is more public support for legal abortion than in previous Times/Siena polls. Sixty-five percent of registered voters said abortion should be largely or always legal, up from 60 percent of registered voters in September 2020.
The proportion of voters who opposed the court’s decision — 61 percent — was similar to the proportion who said they supported Roe v. Wade two years ago.
Democrats maintain the loyalty of a critical segment of mostly liberal and educated voters who disapprove of Mr. Biden’s achievements but care more about debates about guns, democracy and the contraction of abortion rights than the state of the economy.
Voters who said issues related to abortion, guns or threats to democracy were the country’s biggest problem backed Democrats by a wide margin, 66 percent to 14 percent.
For some progressive voters, recent victories over conservative policies make it difficult to sit on the sidelines.
Lucy Ackerman, a 23-year-old graphic designer in Durham, NC, said Biden had repeatedly failed to deliver on election promises. She recently registered with the Democratic Socialists of America. Nevertheless, she is committed to getting as many Democrats elected as possible this fall.
She says the Supreme Court’s decision to undo Roe has made politics personal: She and her wife married after the decision was leaked, fearing the court would reverse same-sex marriage next time.
“Recent events have pushed me to do more,” she said. “I have become more involved in the political efforts on the ground. I helped sign up friends to vote.”
Liberal opposition to conservative claims in court seems to have helped Democrats most among white college graduates, who are relatively liberal and often isolated by their wealth from economic woes. Only 17 percent of white, college-educated Biden voters said an economic issue is the most important the country faces, less than for any other racial or educational group.
Overall, white college graduates preferred Democratic control of Congress, 57-36. Women propelled the Democratic power among the group, with highly educated white women supporting the Democrats, 64-30. Democrats barely led among white-educated men, 46-45.
While the survey doesn’t show an unusually large gender gap, the poll seems to offer some evidence that the court’s abortion decision could do more to help Democrats among women. Nine percent of women said abortion rights were the most important issue, compared with 1 percent of men.
The battle for congressional control is very different among the often less affluent, non-white and moderate voters who say the economy or inflation is the biggest problem facing the country. They preferred Republican control of Congress, 62 to 25 percent, although more than half of voters who said the economy was the biggest problem also said abortion should be largely legal.
Only 74 percent of voters who supported Biden in the 2020 election but said the economy or inflation was the main issue said they preferred democratic control of Congress. By contrast, Democrats were the choice of 87 percent of Biden voters who said abortion or guns were the top issue.
The economy is perhaps helping Republicans the most among Spanish voters, who preferred Democrats to control Congress, 41-38. Although the sample size is small, the finding is consistent with the longer-term deterioration of democratic support among the group. Hispanics voted by nearly a 50-point margin over Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections, according to data from Pew Research, after which President Donald J. Trump made surprising gains with them in 2020.
No racial or ethnic group was more likely than Hispanic voters to name the economy or inflation as the main problem facing the country, with 42 percent citing an economic problem, compared to 35 percent of non-Hispanic voters.
Republicans also seem poised to extend their already skewed advantage among white voters without a college degree. They support Republicans by more than a two-to-one margin, 54-23. Still, nearly a quarter remain undecided, compared to just 7 percent of white college graduates.
As less engaged working-class voters align, Republicans may have opportunities for additional gains. Historically, without power, the party has excelled in midterm elections, not least by capitalizing on dissatisfaction with the president’s party.
Only 23 percent of undecided voters approved of Mr Biden’s job performance.
Silvana Read, a certified nursing assistant living outside of Tampa, Florida, is one of several Hispanic voters who will try to influence Republicans to take advantage of widespread discontent with Mr. Biden.
An immigrant from Ecuador, she despised Trump’s comments about women and foreigners, but voted for him because her husband convinced her it would help them financially. Now she and her husband, 56 and 60, blame Mr. Biden for their falling 401(k)s.
“My husband, he sees the news on the TV, he says, ‘I don’t think I can retire before I’m 75,'” she said. “We can’t afford to pay off the mortgage.”
Yet her allegiance to the Republican Party does not extend much beyond Trump. She offered no preference in the battle for control of Congress.
She has no intention of voting during the midterms.
The Times/Siena survey of 849 registered voters across the country was conducted by phone from July 5-7 using live operators. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points. Crosstabs and methodology are available here.
Francesca Paris reporting contributed.
