The dangers posed by a deal between Russia and North Korea

Both men are throwbacks. Mr. Kim is the grandson of a tyrant imposed on North Korea by Stalin. Putin waxes nostalgic about Russia’s imperial past. Yet the threat they pose today is clear and present. An alliance between them could change the course of the war in Ukraine by granting Russia a new weapons supply. It could also escalate a nuclear arms race in Asia.

North Korea is an extreme version of what Russia under Putin is becoming: a militarized society, cut off from the West, ruled by a despot with no regard for human life. But despite its poverty and isolation, the country suddenly has something Russia desperately needs: more artillery shells. Russia is estimated to have fired more than 10 million of them last year and, like Ukraine, is running low. North Korea, with its Soviet-style armed forces, has millions in stock and the primitive industrial power to produce even more. The grenade failure rate is high: in one barrage aimed at South Korea in 2010, 20% failed to explode. But for Russia that is much better than nothing. And North Korea could also offer other weapons, such as missiles or howitzers.

An agreement on ammunition would come at a delicate moment in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, whose painfully slow pace has raised new questions about the country’s tactics and Western resolve (see the International chapter). For now, Ukraine has at least reached parity with Russia in the artillery war, with both sides facing limited supplies. But if Russia were to receive an influx of ammunition, it would be able to more effectively pin down Ukrainian forces, slowing their advance even further and increasing the level of depletion in the coming winter months.

North Korea wants something in return. In the 2000s, Russia was one of the signatories of the international sanctions regime imposed on North Korea for its illicit nuclear weapons program. Still, the location of this week’s meeting – the Vostochny Cosmodrome spaceport – provided a none-too-subtle hint at what might happen next. Mr. Kim could demand access to Russian missile technology that could improve the range, reliability and flexibility of North Korea’s nuclear weapons delivery system. He may also be keen to obtain Russian satellite and submarine secrets.

So while the immediate effect of an agreement might simply be to make life more difficult for Ukrainian soldiers, it could also ultimately change the nuclear balance in Asia. The North Korean regime is both erratic and vicious: it periodically threatens to incinerate South Korea and fires two short-range missiles just before the Kim-Putin summit. Other countries are concerned that their military capabilities are improving and may respond by building up their own arsenals. A Kim dynasty that could launch missiles from submarines at will would terrify its neighbors.

Korean advice

What must we do? An unpredictable factor is China, which has some influence on both dictatorships. The country has no problem with a protracted and bloody Ukraine-style war, which it hopes will divide Europe and America, but says it is wary of nuclear proliferation. A deal between Russia and North Korea would put that claim to the test. For the West, further sanctions against Russia or North Korea would have little effect. Instead, the country should increase ammunition supplies to Ukraine to help the country defend itself against Russia. It should also publish what it knows about arms deals between Moscow and Pyongyang, and reaffirm that the US nuclear umbrella protects its allies in Asia.

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Updated: Sep 16, 2023 10:03am IST