The F-16 fighter jets weren’t due to be delivered to Ukraine until next year, but that didn’t stop President Volodymyr Zelensky from jumping into one in the Netherlands last week — one stop on a European tour to rally pledges to get the fighter jet out as soon as possible. to donate. possible.
There he was in Denmark, praising the government for “helping Ukraine become invincible” with its promise to send 19 fighter jets. In Athens, he said the Greek offer to train Ukrainian pilots “would help us fight for our freedom.” Within days of his return to Kiev, Mr. Zelensky had received promises from half a dozen countries to either donate the jets – possibly more than 60 – or provide training to pilots and support personnel.
“It is important and necessary,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store of Norway told Mr Zelensky in Kiev, announcing that his government would provide an undetermined number of the planes in the future – probably 10 or less.
It was a remarkable victory lap for an advanced attack aircraft that even Ukraine’s defense minister has acknowledged is unlikely to see combat until next spring — and then only for the few pilots who understand English well enough to fly it. As Ukraine’s counter-offensive approaches this summer, Zelensky’s light-hearted announcements about securing the F-16s are a tacit admission that Ukraine’s 18-month war is likely to drag on for years to come.
They were also a tangible signal of Mr. Zelensky’s fixation on a fighter jet that is faster, more powerful and more versatile than existing Ukrainian aircraft, but has fueled debate about how substantially to advance Kiev’s immediate war effort. The F-16 has both offensive and defensive capabilities: it can be launched in minutes and is equipped to shoot down incoming missiles and enemy aircraft.
Ukraine has been adamant that the planes would make a significant difference, though U.S. officials have long maintained that tanks, munitions and, above all, well-trained ground troops are much more important in what is currently mostly a ground war. Western fighter jets are costly and it can take years to train and deploy enough pilots to provide adequate air cover.
As the country pushes for the warplanes, Ukraine is also feeling a ticking political clock, current and former officials in Kiev and Washington say. Mr. Zelensky seems driven to deliver as many F-16s as possible before the elections in Europe and the United States, which could cause a change of heart among the governments that have promised the planes.
The Netherlands, for example, has promised to give Ukraine no fewer than 42 F-16s when the country withdraws from its air force; Parliamentary elections will be held in November.
The bigger concern, however, concerns the United States, where Republican support for sending tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine is waning. Former President Donald J. Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, said in July that he would push Zelensky into peace deals by telling him “no more — you have to make a deal.”
“The American political uncertainties are deeply on the minds of Ukrainians and all of Europe,” said Connecticut Democrat Senator Richard Blumenthal, who met Mr. Zelensky in Kiev just as the Ukrainian president returned from his F-16 tour. last week. “One of the objectives here is clearly to record commitments as clearly and unambiguously as possible.”
He said Mr. Zelensky did not discuss next year’s US election directly at their meeting, which also included South Carolina Senators Lindsey Graham, a Republican, and Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, from Massachusetts, and that this meeting was held in the basement of the Intercontinental Hotel in Kiev was held. an air raid alarm. But, he said in a telephone interview, the more that can be delivered before November 2024, “the more air support will not be threatened by the whims of US politics.”
So far, the Biden administration has not committed to sending Ukraine F-16s from its own fleet, although it announced last week that it would begin training pilots at air bases in Texas and Arizona starting in September.
It is expected to take at least four months to train the Ukrainian pilots in aircraft that are more advanced than they are used to, and in tactics and weapons they are not used to using. It could take even longer to teach them enough English to understand the training manuals and to communicate with air traffic controllers and instructors. The avionics on the aircraft, including the buttons, are in English.
There is another wrinkle in the plans to deliver the planes. The United States must give permission before other countries can send U.S.-made aircraft to Ukraine. The Biden administration has indicated to Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands that it will allow the transfers, but a new president could reverse these agreements on a case-by-case basis if the delivery is not completed, a US official said.
Several officials named in this article spoke on condition of anonymity and said they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.
A former senior Biden administration official said Mr Zelensky’s spate of F-16 announcements was also likely to lock in Western commitments in the event that a sluggish counter-offensive erodes political support among allies.
Mr. Zelensky’s sense of urgency was undeniable. In addition to his diplomatic forays, he mentioned the F-16s at least eight times during his late-night speeches in August, predicting that their presence in Ukrainian airspace will defeat Russian forces. Officials in Kiev have even used last week’s death of one of their famous pilots in a training accident to underline that Ukraine needs the jets to win.
Part of the appeal of the jets is that there is plenty of supply. Many European air forces have F-16s and are selling them to switch to the even more advanced F-35. So they exist in ample numbers, with a built-in Western repair and supply chain, and training programs that can support them years into the future.
However, the immediate hurdle to deploying the promised F-16s is not the actual jets, but the shortage of trained English-speaking Ukrainian pilots and support personnel to fly and maintain them.
A former senior US Air Force officer said it takes between 8 and 14 support personnel to maintain, fuel and support each F-16, depending on the number of bases the jets operate from. Training the support crews will take about as long as the pilots, the officer said.
So far, US officials have said only eight Ukrainian pilots are fluent enough in English and have experience piloting fighters to have begun training on Denmark’s F-16s. At least twenty other pilots are starting English lessons in Britain.
Even Ukrainian pilots skilled in piloting the Soviet-era MiG-29 jets that make up much of Kiev’s current fleet would have to learn to navigate the “hands-on gas and stick” or “HOTAS” technology of the F-16s; that’s a system that allows them to switch from bombing targets on the ground to air-to-air combat without taking their hands off the controls.
The system makes it easier to navigate between the two targets than with a MiG-29, but it still takes time to learn.
“That’s all going to take time and probably won’t happen before the end of the year,” Gen. James B. Hecker, the top U.S. air commander in Europe, told reporters with the George Washington University Defense Writers Group in August. 18.
A US adviser said Ukraine is likely to deploy the first F-16s once pilots are certified to fly, in a series of defensive and offensive combat missions. Given the advanced weapons the F-16s will carry, deploying them, even in a niche capability, could force Russia to commit valuable resources to monitoring and countering them, the adviser said.
Yet their effectiveness would still be limited by Russian air defenses and advanced fighters developed specifically to combat NATO aircraft such as the F-16.
“In the short term, they’ll help a little bit, but it’s not the panacea,” General Hecker said.
US officials say the F-16s are important for other reasons. Their arrival will boost Ukrainian morale and signal the shift of the Ukrainian air force to a NATO-caliber fleet. That sends an important deterrent message to Russia to avert future attacks from Moscow once this war is over, US officials say.
US officials have repeatedly stated that making F-16s available to Ukraine is more about the future than the present.
“Putin’s strategy is clearly to survive America, or wait, and count on the country lacking the will or weapons to continue,” Mr Blumenthal said.
He added: “There is a gap, so to speak, between the victory lap of accepting the aircraft and the actual delivery. But the goal is to close that gap as quickly as possible and get F-16s on the battlefield.”
