Doesn’t it feel like everything is getting in the way of President Biden lately?
His main rival – who already defeated Mr Biden in 2020 and whom the Democrats, in a sense, defeated again in the meantime – faces criminal charges and is still on his way to the nomination.
The economy – which teetered on the brink of recession for two years with rising inflation and falling real wages – appears to be headed for a soft landing, with falling inflation, rising real wages and stock market recovery.
Opposition to “wake up” — a topic that Republicans were most eager to exploit in the Biden era — seems to have diminished significantly, either because Donald J. Trump has taken much of the oxygen; conservatives have gone too far; or progressives have reined in their excesses and have fallen back on the defensive after conservatives went on the offensive.
It’s probably too early to expect these recent developments to raise Mr. Biden’s approval ratings, which are stuck in the low 40s. But if these trends continue, many of the explanations for Mr. Biden’s low approval will quickly lose credibility. If its numbers don’t start to rise in the coming months – with the wind seemingly at its back – it will soon start raising more serious questions about its position heading into the 2024 election.
Until now during his presidency, it’s been fairly easy to attribute his low ratings to economic conditions. Yes, unemployment was low and growth remained stable. But inflation soared, real incomes fell, stocks fell into a bear market, a recession seemed imminent, and voters everywhere saw the signs of a struggling economy, including supply chain shortfalls and high interest rates.
It is reasonable to doubt whether economic conditions have really been as bad as voters say, but it is also reasonable to recognize that such conditions can produce a pessimistic electorate. Two episodes of inflation reminiscent of today’s post-pandemic economy – the post-war economies of 1920 and 1946 – were catastrophic for the party in power, even though unemployment remained low by the standards of the time.
Historically, it can seem like almost every major political upheaval has been accompanied by inflation, be it the Great Unrest in Britain, the Red Summer in the US, or even the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany. If it can be argued that high bread prices caused the French Revolution, it is easy to accept that 9 percent inflation (at its peak in June 2022) could hurt Mr Biden’s approval ratings by five or ten percentage points.
But if inflation is holding back Mr Biden, it’s hard to say it should hold him back for too much longer. Annual inflation fell to 3 percent last month and real incomes have finally picked up to rise. The stock market — one of the most visible and consistent measures of the economy for millions of Americans — is up about 15 percent over the past six months. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose 13 percent in July, reaching its highest level since September 2021 — the first full month Mr Biden’s approval rating was below 50 percent.
There is another factor that should help Mr Biden’s approval rating: the start of a new phase of the Republican primary, including debates. As the Republican candidates become more prominent in American life, voters may begin to judge Biden by the alternatives, not just by himself. Some of the Democratic-leaning voters who currently disapprove of Mr. Biden may begin to view the Biden presidency in a different light.
Perhaps in part for these reasons, this is about the time when many presidents see their statuses changed. The approval ratings of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were clearly on the rise at this stage of the election cycle — though both were still below 50 percent — as voters began to see and feel an improving economy.
We’ll see in the coming months if Mr Biden’s ratings start to climb. I wouldn’t expect it to happen any time soon: Mr. Reagan’s and Mr. Clinton’s ratings rose by about less than a point a month between about this time and their re-election. Barack Obama’s ratings rose at a similar, if slightly slower, rate than his post-debt crisis trough a little later in the year.
But even if things don’t move any time soon, I would expect Mr Biden’s ratings to start rising if these terms remain in place. The current era may be polarized, but there are plenty of persuasive and even Democratic-leaning voters – who disapprove of his actions – available to return to his side.
If the economy continues to improve and yet his ratings continue to stagnate in the coming months, hard questions will gradually emerge about the real cause of his weakness — including the possibility that his age, by fueling the perception of a weak president, prevents voters from viewing him as effective, whatever his actual record.
