The CIA now believes the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic most likely originated in a laboratory, according to a study released Saturday that points the finger at China, even as the spy agency acknowledges “little confidence” in its own conclusion .
The finding is not the result of new intelligence and the report was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. It was declassified and released Saturday on the orders of President Donald Trump's chosen leader of the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in as director Thursday.
The nuanced finding suggests that the agency believes the body of evidence makes a laboratory origin more likely than a natural origin. But the agency's assessment assigns a low degree of confidence to this conclusion, indicating that the evidence is inadequate, inconclusive or contradictory.
Previous reports on the origins of COVID-19 have been divided over whether the coronavirus may have emerged accidentally from a Chinese laboratory, or whether it emerged naturally. The new assessment is unlikely to settle the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say the problem may never be resolved due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.
The CIA “continues to assess that both investigative and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” the agency wrote in a statement about its new assessment.
Instead of new evidence, the conclusion was based on new analyzes of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific properties and the work and conditions in China's virology laboratories.
Lawmakers have pressed U.S. spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, leading to lockdowns, economic turmoil and millions of deaths. It's a question with significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the legacy of the pandemic.
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Saturday that he was “pleased that the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab leak theory is the most plausible explanation” and that he praised Ratcliffe for releasing information. the assessment.
“The most important thing now is that China must pay for unleashing a plague on the world,” Cotton said in a statement.
Chinese authorities have dismissed speculation about the origins of COVID as unhelpful and politically motivated. On Saturday, a spokesperson for the Chinese American embassy said the CIA report was not credible.
“We strongly oppose the politicization and stigmatization of the source of the virus and once again call on everyone to respect science and stay away from conspiracy theories,” embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said in an emailed statement to The Associated Press.
Although the origins of the virus remain unknown, scientists believe the most likely hypothesis is that, like many coronaviruses, it circulated among bats before infecting another species, likely raccoon dogs, civet cats or bamboo rats. The infection in turn spread to people who handled or slaughtered these animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases occurred in late November 2019.
However, some official investigations have raised questions about whether the virus escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. Two years ago, an Energy Department report concluded that a laboratory leak was the most likely cause, although that report also expressed little confidence in the finding.
The same year, then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed the virus “most likely” spread after escaping from a laboratory.
Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump's first term, has said he also favors the lab leak scenario.
“The laboratory leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence and common sense,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.
The CIA said it will continue to evaluate any new information that could change its assessment.
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