(The views expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)
LITTLETON, Colo., Jan 8 (Reuters) – For the first time in 2024, more than 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) were emitted from U.S. gas-fired power plants in a single year in 2024, marking a new pollution threshold for the world's largest gas producer and consumer.
The 1.003 billion metric tons emissions figure is 3.6% higher than 2023 levels, and marks a 40% jump in emissions from gas-fired power generation since 2015, according to Ember data.
These numbers seem big, but they lack important context. Discharges from the U.S. fleet of coal-fired power plants totaled just under 620 million tons last year, a record low due to the lowest coal-fired power generation levels ever recorded.
And since U.S. coal-fired power plants discharge 77% more CO2 per unit of electricity than gas-fired plants, the lower coal generation totals show that the U.S. electricity system has actually sharply reduced overall pollution, even as gas emissions have risen.
Thanks to the cuts in coal use, total US energy emissions from all fossil fuels increased by just 0.5% in 2024 from 2023 to 1.64 billion tons, and have fallen by 19% since 2015.
.over, the emission burden has decreased despite the fact that total electricity generation has risen to a record high in 2024.
A rapid increase in electricity generation from clean energy – including solar, wind, hydro and nuclear – has helped offset much of the increase in consumption in recent years.
Total clean electricity generation in 2024 was 35% higher than in 2015, mainly due to a nearly eightfold increase in solar power generation and a more than doubling of wind farm production over that period.
But fossil fuels remain the backbone of America's generation system, supplying just over 58% of all electricity last year.
Natural gas accounted for a record 73% of that fossil share, while coal-fired power stations accounted for the remaining 26%.
Energy companies plan to further reduce coal consumption over the rest of this decade, while adding more renewable energy sources to the generation mix to ensure that overall electricity supply continues to rise in line with demand.
But energy suppliers will also become even more dependent on natural gas, especially for system balancing needs when intermittent production from renewable energy sources does not meet overall demand needs.
According to Ember, more than thirty U.S. states rely on natural gas for 30% or more of their electricity needs.
Thirteen of these states rely on gas for 50% or more of their electricity, while another nine states use gas for between 15% and 30% of their electricity.
In addition, according to the Global Energy Monitor, there are nearly 50 gas-fired power plants in preparation or under construction in the US, with a combined capacity of almost 30,000 megawatts.
That heavy reliance on old and new power plants and pipelines means that natural gas will remain an integral part of the U.S. energy system for decades, even as renewable energy generation totals continue to rise.
That, in turn, means that total emissions from natural gas use in the US will also continue to rise.
But some of those gas plants will be used to replace aging coal plants, which have been in operation for an average of 45 years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That means that even as more gas capacity becomes available, some of the most polluting coal-fired power plants in the U.S. will close in about the same time period, which should help limit overall fossil fuel pollution even as the U.S. energy system becomes increasingly gas-rich .
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
(Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Sonali Paul)
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