This newly discovered asteroid can be dangerous. What is the chances that it can hit the earth? Scientists say … | Mint

Asteroid 2024 JR4, a newly discovered object nearby, has attracted the attention of scientists because of the size and potential impact risk. Measuring between 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 feet) wide, it is large enough to cause significant localized damage if it were to clash with the earth. Although the chances of impact remain low on December 22, 2032, the asteroid has surpassed the 1% probability threshold – an unusual appearance for objects of this size – which contain formal reports for planetary defense agencies. NASA continues to follow 2024 JR4 closely, because further observations can exclude the threat or refine its impact.

The asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (Atlas) in Chile, according to the Cneos analysis of near-earth asteroid, Jet Propulsion Laboratory stood.

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) has been warned, together with US government agencies and the United Nations office of Outer Space Affairs, NASA explained.

Current risk assessment

According to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), 2024 JR4 is currently classified as Torino Scale 3, which means that it has a small chance of impact, but is large enough to cause localized damage if it strikes. It is unusual for an asteroid of this size to reach Torino Scale 3, because most objects with impact opportunities larger than 1% are considerably smaller and burn in the atmosphere.

Center for Neo Studies (CNEOS), as reported by Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), currently classifies 2024 JR4 as a Torino Scale 3 -Aastoid, which indicates a small chance of impact, but a size that is large enough to cause localized damage If a collision occurs. It is rare for an asteroid of this size to reach Torino Scale 3, because most objects with impact opportunities above 1% are much smaller and usually fall into the atmosphere.

NASA scientists emphasize that impact predictions change daily, because new data refine the trajectory of the asteroid. Fits Neos with initially with regard to likely, are often excluded as threats as soon as additional observations improved their orbital models.

Projected path and impact option

From January 31, 2025, 2024 JR4 48 million kilometers (30 million miles) and left. The asteroid is expected to return to the environment of the earth in 2028, but NASA confirms that there is no risk of impact during that approach.

If 2024 JR4 were to influence the earth in 2032, the likely impact zone would be somewhere along a risk corridor: the eastern Pacific, North -Zuid -amerika, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arab Sea, South -Asia.

NASA estimates that the asteroid would enter the atmosphere of the earth at approximately 17 km/s (38,000 mph), which can cause significant regional effects, depending on the impact location.

Current observations and future predictions

The Sentry Impact Monitoring System from NASA has followed since the Discovery 2024 -JR4. It was first reported to the Minor Planet Center (MPC) on January 27, 2025. Various observatories actively follow the movements of the asteroid. Observations will continue until April 2025, when it becomes too faint for telescopes based on the ground to follow. However, space-based infrared telescopes can offer further data after that period.

Continuous risk assessment

The planetary defense experts from NASA will continue to update the risk assessment of 2024 JR4 as new data emerges. The Sentry Impact Monitoring System will re -assess the process and offer updated impact opportunities over time.

Although the chance of impact remains low, the continuous observations of NASA and the international cooperation ensure that any potential threat will be properly monitored and, if necessary, will meet mitigation strategies.