India’s defeat to England hasn’t ended their chances of securing a semi-final spot in the ongoing ICC T20 World Cup, but the loss could have major implications for the rest of their campaign. Had India won against England, the Harmanpreet Kaur-led side could have taken control of Group 2 and set foot in the semi-finals. But they failed to chase the total of 152. The fate of India is thus left out of their hands. Based on form and standings, it is still likely that India will earn their spot in the semi-finals, but it is far from certain.
England are currently top of group two with three wins in three games and six points. India is second with two wins in three matches and a total of four points. Pakistan is in third place and has won one of the two matches and has a total of two points. Windies is fourth with one win in three games and a total of two points. Ireland are at the bottom and have lost all three games so far.
India’s semi-final chances will depend heavily on Sunday’s showdown between Pakistan and the West Indies.
If West Indies beat Pakistan:
India will keep a close eye on the West Indies match against Pakistan on Sunday. Both teams are two points behind the Women in Blue and have one and two games to play respectively. Pakistan’s schedule and superior net run rate make them a huge threat to their arch-rivals.
If Windies win their match against Pakistan, it will help India immensely. Both Windies and India are tied on four points. It would also be highly unlikely that the Windies would jump India on the table due to their inferior net run rate. It will also stop Pakistan at just two points for a while before they play their last game against England.
A loss to Pakistan would put them in a position where they need to win their last group stage match against England to earn a total of four points and need India to lose to Ireland to qualify for the last four. In this case, both teams finish with four points and Pakistan jumps over India based on better NRR.
If Pakistan beat West Indies:
But if Pakistan, who already have two points to their credit, wins the game, they will rise above India by four points on NRR basis with their final game against England ahead. India will need to beat Ireland in their final group stage match to keep their hopes alive. If India does, Pakistan would have to beat England to deny their arch-rivals a place in the last four.
If India loses to Ireland, they will have to rely on England to beat Pakistan by a huge margin to ensure a massive NRR swing in their favour.
Is finishing top two a problem for India?
India can still finish as group winners and advance to the semi-finals, but NRR stands in their way. The loss to England means they beat Ireland by a huge margin and hope England suffer a big loss to Pakistan too. Only these two things will help tip the NRR equation in India’s favour.
A top-two finish would qualify for the semi-finals, finishing second would be no problem for India. But India has a reason to avoid second place, as whoever finishes second in Group 2 will have to play against Australia in the semi-finals.
With the form Australia are in, they are a team that other sides hope to avoid, at least until the final showdown.
Australia are chasing a hat-trick of T20 World Cup titles and are the top-ranked team in the format. Since their 2020 tournament win, they have won a total of 22 matches in the format, losing just two to New Zealand.
India’s recent record against Australia isn’t great either. They suffered a loss to them in the final of the Commonwealth Games cricket tournament in August and India had to settle for silver. Thereafter, India suffered a 4-1 defeat at home to the Aussies in December in the T20I series.
India will play the last match in the group stage against Ireland on Monday.
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