Casually dressed in jeans and T-shirts, shorts and sandals, and chatting jovially in Mandarin as they lean over a controller and screen, it’s hard to believe they’re up to something shady — until one of them excitedly yells, ” I have a tank!”
But these men don’t play computer games. They fly drones over a military site on a nearby island under Taiwan’s control.
The 15-second video clip is one of a number of videos recently released on the Chinese social media site Weibo showing what appears to be civilian drones trolling the Taiwanese military. The island’s military later confirmed that these mysterious threats are indeed civilian drones from mainland China.
A video captures the moment four soldiers from Taiwan realize they are being watched by a drone hovering in the sky above their sentry. Taken by surprise, they respond by throwing rocks at the invading drone, which zooms in so close you can make out the faces of individual soldiers.
Video footage of these bizarre encounters has gone viral on Chinese social media, drawing hundreds of comments mocking the Taiwanese military. The clips seem to expose a stunning vulnerability: the ability of Chinese drones to photograph limited military sites in Taiwan at any time.
‘Gray Zone’ Warfare
Analysts say the images beamed across the Internet — showing military sites and personnel in detail for the entire world — are embarrassing at best for Taiwan and downright dangerous at worst.
That trip infuriated the Chinese ruling Communist Party — which considers Taiwan part of its territory, despite never having ruled it — and responded by launching unprecedented military exercises around the island, sending warplanes across the Taiwan Strait and firing missiles. to fire over the main island.
But as provocative as the footage is, it’s hard to know exactly who is behind the drone raids.
Beijing has dismissed the drone raids as “no big deal”. When asked about civilian drones flying in the Kinmen area, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry recently replied: “Chinese drones flying over Chinese territory – what should you be surprised about?”
China has fueled suspicions and has not removed the videos from its otherwise highly censored internet or prevented the drones from traveling through its own highly controlled airspace.
Beijing also doesn’t seem interested in punishing those behind the statues; flying drones over domestic military sites is punishable by imprisonment.
‘Deniable harassment’
Isabel Hilton, an international journalist and China watcher, said it was impossible to know who was operating the drones — which is exactly what made her so apt for “deniable harassment”.
The machines look like civilian models but can be “operated by anyone, including the military,” said Hilton, the founder of China Dialogue, who suggests that “government agencies under the guise of a popular movement” could be behind the controls.
Hilton drew a parallel with events in the South China Sea, where China was accused of using a maritime militia to enforce its territorial claims by flooding disputed areas with hundreds of apparently civilian fishing boats.
In both arenas, the ideal outcome for China is to gain an advantage “without the military appearing to be involved,” Hilton said.
“Whether you’re using fishing boats or civilian drones, it doesn’t look like this is official policy. It doesn’t look like direct military harassment like a fighter jet raid does. And so it’s an undeniable provocation.”
Not only did Hilton say the drones served reconnaissance purposes — “they fly very low over military installations or take very clear pictures of individually identifiable soldiers” — they could also have a psychological impact on the soldiers, who “find their faces” very clearly. posted on Chinese social media, where they risk being insulted and where people can call for their killing.” Taiwanese media have reported that such exposure could hurt the morale of the island’s soldiers.
“This is all very demoralizing to Taiwanese, and it is being held at a level designed not to make Taiwan relax, not to make Taiwan forget the threat,” Hilton said.
“(It is) designed to remind Taiwan that there is no escape from Chinese pressure, and that China will eventually take over. That is the goal.”
Trolling with drones
But not everyone suspects the invisible hand of the Chinese military.
Paul Huang, a research fellow at the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, a nonprofit, non-governmental think tank, thinks the drones are being operated by private citizens who “maybe out of curiosity, maybe out of nationalism” want to provoke Taiwan.
“Flying so close to a Taiwanese military sentry and getting their attention… That’s not really the way an army would deploy or use their drones. And frankly, I don’t see any good reason the (People’s Liberation Army) would even try something like that” said Huang.
Still, he and Hilton agree that Beijing could stop the drone raids if it wanted to — but it doesn’t, as it sees an advantage in letting them continue.
“Beijing (sees the incursions) as an attempt by their own people to troll Taiwan, to provoke Taiwan, to mock Taiwan’s incompetence. They treat it as a propaganda victory,” Huang said.
Hilton of China Dialogue said Beijing is “definitely playing a double game here”.
“Beijing, as we know, controls its own domestic internet, it controls domestic airspace. If this happens, it’s because the government wants it to happen.”
Change threat
Taiwan has been threatened with invasion since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek’s defeated nationalists fled there to form a new government after being evicted from the mainland by Mao’s Communist Party zedong.
More than 70 years later, the Communist Party still views Taiwan as something akin to a breakaway province that must be “reunited” with the mainland at any cost — and has made it clear that it is willing to use force if necessary. to fulfill that objective.
If China were to invade, the Kinmen Islands — most of which have been controlled by Taiwan since the end of the war — would be a tempting first target. Located just a few miles from the mainland Chinese city of Xiamen — and hundreds of miles from the Taiwanese capital, Taipei — they are acutely vulnerable.
It is for this reason that for the past seven decades, the beaches in Kinmen have been lined with countless iron spikes designed to make any amphibious assault as costly as possible to an invading force.
For Taiwan, the problem is that the nature of that invasion force is changing.
The Kinmen Islands’ proximity to the mainland puts them well within reach of commercially available drones, which are cheap and plentiful in China, home to the world’s second largest market for the machines and no shortage of potential operators among them. the population of 1.4 billion.
And while iron spikes might be useful in a beach invasion, they won’t do much against a drone operator trolling the Taiwanese military from the safety of a Xiamen park.
fight back
Still, Huang said Beijing may regret not keeping the trolls, whoever they are, in check.
He said Taiwan could ask DJI, the China-based manufacturer whose logo appeared in some of the trolling videos, to make the Kinmen Islands a restricted area in its database — a measure that would prevent operators from using the drones there. can control.
And Beijing’s “propaganda victory” could have other unintended – and unwanted – consequences.
Shortly after the series of drone raids, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the island would deploy a new anti-drone system on military bases early next year. It also announced plans to increase its total defense budget to a record $19.4 billion, a 13.9% increase from 2022.
“(China) doesn’t really see a problem yet, which I think they should do because it could lead to escalation that they didn’t want. If they want to be in control, they better check these civilian drone operators first” said Huang.
Taiwan, meanwhile, seems to have realized that ignoring the drones and their mysterious operators is not an option. Within days of shooting down its first drone, it released a series of photos to the media demonstrating its shiny new anti-drone weapons. It seemed to send its own propaganda message: The next time the drones come calling, it’s done.