Rajasthan’s ruling Congress and the opposition BJP are set for an intense battle for 200 seats when the state votes for a new government on November 25. The BJP wants to cash in on the anti-incumbency party and Narendra Modi, while the Congress party is banking on social welfare and public programs of the Ashok Gehlot government. Both sides are embroiled in internal conflicts and hope to play them to their advantage.
Rajasthan is known to vote in a new party every five years. Since the 1993 mid-term parliamentary elections, no incumbent ruling party has been re-elected for a second consecutive term. If the trend continues, the BJP should be the beneficiary this time, after five years of Congress rule.
The BJP is also focused on exploiting the rifts within the Congress, especially the open tussle between Prime Minister Ashok Gehlot and Congress dissident Sachin Pilot.
“The BJP will come to power with more than 160 seats as people have realized that the Congress’ policy of appeasement is against national interests. My personal view is that Sachin Pilot and the Congress high command are barely visible as Gehlot is portraying it as his election.” says former BJP MLA Shaitan Singh.
Rajasthan has witnessed many incidents of law and order disruption in the past five years, especially crimes against women. Corruption cases like the infamous ‘red diary’, which was flashed in the Rajasthan Assembly by a minister who was later sacked by Gehlot, have become the talking point for the BJP at election rallies.
Sources say despite corruption and law and order problems, Gehlot is facing less anti-incumbency than expected. Under these circumstances, the BJP’s challenge is compounded by the way people have been receiving populist schemes announced by the Congress government – like free electricity up to 100 units, LPG gas cylinders for Rs 500, increased old age pension etc. Voters love free gifts, although they also believe that no matter who rules in Jaipur, free gifts from the then government are guaranteed.
“Unlike 2014, there is no Modi wave in Rajasthan. Our government has introduced several welfare programs that have directly benefited the people. In previous elections, when we – MLAs – toured our constituencies, the mood of the people was visible. This time the people welcomed us because they have seen how the Gehlot government’s hard work has improved their lives,” said Saleh Mohammad, Minister of Minority Affairs of Rajasthan.
“Women are fed up with inflation and the youth are disillusioned with unemployment, both of which are the failure of the Modi government at the Center and people understand it well. We are confident that we will form the next government,” the minister asserted.
However, there is deep dissatisfaction among Congress MLAs. The party has conducted many election surveys, including a survey of the popularity of its MLAs and other eligible candidates. With the Congress remaining unscathed so far, its prospects would depend on the judicious selection of candidates based on winnability.
Protests by Congress workers against some MLAs will prompt the state and Delhi leaders to be cautious while handing out tickets.
The ongoing bickering between Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot played out in the public domain throughout the Congress term and should not be forgotten by the electorate. They may have declared a fragile truce for the time being, but it is not enough for people to forget the time and resources lost in containing the recurring insurgency.
The Gurjar and Meena belt in eastern Rajasthan, which includes 24 constituencies and represents five percent of the electorate, voted for the Congress in the 2018 elections as Pilot, then president of the state party, hoped to become Chief Minister. But with Pilot, a Gurjar, having been marginalized for the past five years, the community could choose the BJP this time. The Congress is trying to take up the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (which supplies drinking water to 13 districts in eastern Rajasthan), which has been postponed due to disputes between the state and central governments.
The Jats, the most prominent OBC group, have never been happy with Gehlot. Then there is Nagaur MP Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, which is preparing to field candidates in Jat-dominated constituencies. There are experts who believe that this Beniwal factor could hurt the Congress more than the BJP. If this happens, Congress could find itself in trouble in areas where it performed very well in 2018.
The Congress is also wary of the new tribal party, the Bharatiya Adivasi Party (BAP). BAP was created in the place of the previous BTP (Bharatiya Tribal Party). BTP won two seats in 2018. BAP has done well in some tribal parts of southern Rajasthan in local elections. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had secured almost 5 percent of the votes in 2018. However, the party has been dormant of late after the MLAs in Rajasthan shifted to the Congress.
The BJP is also plagued by intra-party conflict and has not projected a ministerial face so far. The party leadership under Narendra Modi appears to be telling voters to trust the symbol and let the party’s democratic process identify the next prime ministerial candidate. Vasundhara Raje, a senior BJP leader and former chief minister, is fighting to stay relevant in the state but is being treated with indifference by national leaders. Raje’s followers are angry as the BJP has refused to appoint her as presumptive chief minister and rejected many of her supporters as election candidates. In fact, the BJP wants to promote a new leadership in the state and is fielding seven MPs in the Assembly elections, including Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore.
The BJP is banking on Prime Minister Modi to canvass Hindu votes. The party has six leadership candidates: Union Minister Gajendra Shekhawat, Leader of Opposition Rajendra Singh Rathore, former state party president Satish Punia and Alwar MP Mahant Balak Nath. However, no one has Raje’s appeal. Also, the party leadership has no confidence in projecting any of these ideas.
That amounts to an Ashok Gehlot Versus Who situation.
Chief Minister Gehlot looks stronger and bigger in the absence of a known challenger to face him. That is somewhat similar to the Modi versus Who situation ahead of the 2024 national elections.
(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
