Johnson’s government is currently believed to have anywhere from 170 to 180 MPs on its payroll. Since the vote was private, that means Johnson could only get a handful of backbench votes at best. At worst, people on the payroll voted against him as soon as they were given the protection of anonymity.
While Johnson and his allies have since claimed the victory was convincing and a decisive result giving the prime minister a renewed mandate, the reality is that 41% of his own MPs don’t want him in power. That number is worse than the result of a confidence vote in Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, in 2018 and is likely to rise in the coming months.
For now, however, Johnson’s job is safe. Conservative Party rules protect him from another confidence vote for 12 months. There is speculation that the party could try to rewrite those rules, but given the private nature of the Conservatives, it’s hard to get a real idea of how likely this is.
So, what happens next?
Johnson announces a torrent of policy ideas designed to cheer up his supporters and voters. More houses, more doctors, more police, crackdown on illegal immigration to name a few.
Meanwhile, those who most want to see his downfall are not sitting on their hands. Publicly, MPs say the result of the confidence vote means they owe Johnson their loyalty — for now. He deserves the time to turn things around, they say.
However, multiple sources confirmed to DailyExpertNews that those with an eye on the top job are already building their power base and getting ready to make leadership bids when the time comes.
Dinners have already taken place with donors who would fund individual campaigns, organized by MPs who had already picked their choice of leader. Influential MPs have been asked to test the water.
“The calls usually start with 15 minutes of insisting that Boris has their full support and that they don’t think there will be a leadership contest. Then they outline their vision of how they would improve things. It’s discreet, but it happens,” a senior conservative told DailyExpertNews.
Unsurprisingly, the hopefuls who act most openly are long-term critics of Johnson.
“Most activity seems to be around Jeremy Hunt and other former Remainers,” says a veteran conservative and former government minister, referring to those who wanted the UK to remain in the European Union. “That makes sense, because they didn’t want Boris at all and have the least to lose.”
Hunt, who has held three cabinet posts, most notably health, is without a doubt the most prominent contender on the moderate, ex-Remain side of the party. He comes with baggage, however, and opposition Labor party sources have told DailyExpertNews they are already writing rules of attack.
A senior conservative said their fellow MPs are aware of this. “It can’t be Jeremy. Labor can say he ran health care for six years and didn’t prepare for a pandemic. They can say that when he was culture minister, he talked to the Murdochs during the phone hacking scandal. He will be crushed to death.” the source said.
Other potential candidates from this side of the party include Tom Tugendhat, a former soldier who chairs the Foreign Affairs Committee, and the current Education Minister, Nadhim Zahawi.
Tugendhat has impressed colleagues with his eloquence and seriousness, especially when he spoke of the fall of Afghanistan, a country where he had served in the military.
Despite voting to leave the EU in 2016, Zahawi is widely admired among moderates in the party. Crucially, as one conservative source put it, “he hasn’t been in government long enough to show obvious flaws and, despite his support for Boris, even after the confidence vote, isn’t too tainted by association.”
Obviously, running a stealth leadership campaign is harder when you’re a sitting minister. How do you defend the prime minister after the confidence vote while courting MPs to test the water?
That is the problem faced by those considered to be the Leave candidates.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss voted for Remain in 2016 but has since become one of the loudest Eurosceptic voices in government, particularly in Northern Ireland. She has a formidable and dedicated team around her – some of whom have previously worked in Issue 10 – that have produced slick videos and photos of her looking a statesman through and through. That could come in handy if she were to run for leader, one cynic would say.
A source at the Foreign Office told DailyExpertNews that Truss has had “endless meetings with MPs since Monday”, adding that although the meetings are officially about Northern Ireland, “it has been insinuated that she sees what her constituency is, should the time pass.” come.”
Truss’s office denies any secret leadership offer. Before the confidence vote, she said she supported Johnson “100%” and encouraged colleagues to do the same. After the vote, she urged MPs that it was time to “get behind the Prime Minister”.
Truss’ most obvious rival is current Home Secretary Priti Patel. One of the conservative sources said Patel’s stealth campaign “has been busy, organized and running for about a year.”
Patel is very popular with the grassroots and more conservative wing of the party. She is a longtime Eurosceptic who has spent years talking loudly about immigration, crime and economics. She used to be known for bringing back the death penalty, although she has since distanced herself from it.
Both ministers publicly support the prime minister and officials say their focus is on carrying out Johnson’s agenda, nothing else.
However, a government minister told DailyExpertNews that some ministers “use their office to raise their profile and interact with MPs”.
While it’s not new to invite influential MPs to your big state office, the minister says the tone in Westminster “has changed since Monday. Everyone expects a vacancy to arise in the near future.”
The next major hurdle for Johnson is the two midterm elections that will take place on June 23. If he loses both, which is not impossible, his critics will move again. The party could try to rewrite the rules so that it gets another leadership vote.
If the party doesn’t rewrite the rules, it will face an uphill battle to reverse both its own popularity and the popularity of his party before the next scheduled election in 2024.
It is not an enviable task, as the UK is experiencing a cost of living crisis and the Conservatives have been in power for 12 years. And under normal circumstances, you’d be forgiven for thinking Johnson is safe, since no one in their right mind wants the job.
But that’s how bad things are. Despite how bleak the coming years look for the UK, ambitious politicians are willing to throw in their hats at what may be the worst possible moment and put their entire career on the line. Because if they don’t, no one can guess how far Johnson would take his party with him.