Senior British official Sue Gray’s report has been heralded as a make-or-break for Prime Minister Boris Johnson – a damning ruling that he broke his own pandemic rules could turn his party against him and force him from office.
But so far on Monday there have been more questions than answers, thanks in large part to a belated intervention by the Metropolitan Police last week.
Their own investigation means we won’t see Gray’s full findings today — and that leaves several areas of confusion on the road ahead.
How damning is today’s trimmed-down report? Gray is said to have provided some overarching findings to Downing Street, with no details about various events police are investigating. If this version of its investigation is disappointing, the government will likely try to draw a line under the scandal. It’s not clear, however, if that will engulf the British public, which is united in anger at the allegations by the parties, while the rest of the country was living under strict restrictions.
On the other hand, if Gray’s conclusions are critical of Johnson, the scandal will only grow — and the expectation for the full report will increase.
Will we ever see the full findings? Gray may decide to publish the full report once the police have completed the investigation. It was believed it was imminent when, last week, the Met said they would investigate the parties and asked for “minimal reference” in Gray’s report to the meetings they are also looking at.
Downing Street has always said it will publish anything Gray sends it, but on Monday a spokesperson said they will “continue to assess” whether the full, unedited report will be made public.
If they try to hide it from the public, they will have a political battle on their hands that could drag on the scandal for days or weeks. The opposition Labor party has demanded that the full findings be published, as have some Conservatives, and it will be difficult to avoid the appearance of a cover-up if the long-promised judicial inquiry never sees the light of day.
What will Boris Johnson do? Johnson has apologized for some of the parties that were made public, but in recent appearances in parliament has tried to shift the narrative to the economy and the Ukraine-Russia border crisis.
He is likely to hope Monday’s findings give him enough leeway to rid himself of the scandal, possibly promising a reform of Downing Street culture but refusing to resign.
But he will certainly face questions about the scandal after Monday, regardless of what is made public.
Will this end Johnson’s premiership? That all depends on what the report says, who sees it and what action conservative lawmakers decide to take.
If 15% of the party’s MPs demand a no-confidence vote in Johnson, there will be a poll – and then a simple majority would force the leader out. A vote appeared to be drawing closer in recent weeks as more allegations were made public, and a critical report could convince enough backbenchers to trigger one.