The big question now is: will the BJP push for the chief minister's post or allow Eknath Shinde to continue
Mumbai:
Four hours after the counting of votes for the Maharashtra Assembly polls, the BJP-led Mahayuti looks set for a landslide victory, rebounding emphatically from its setback in the Lok Sabha polls this year.
The Mahayuti is currently leading with 221 of the 288 seats in the Assembly, registering a comprehensive victory over the opposition bloc Maha Vikas Aghadi, which is trailing far behind with 56. The BJP is leading the Mahayuti show and is leading with 124 of the 148 seats it contested. . The country is well supported by its allies: Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP. Both have edged ahead of their rival factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in an election seen as a battle to prove which faction is the 'real Sena' and the 'real NCP'.
While the Mahayuti camp has much to celebrate today, complications are waiting in the wings. And these complications are similar to those that emerged after the 2019 Maharashtra elections, also won by the NDA.
Who will become Prime Minister?
The big question that arises after the NDA's victory is: who will be the next Chief Minister of Maharashtra? Both Mr Fadnavis and Mr Shinde are aiming for comfortable victories in Nagpur South-West and Kopdi Pachpakhadi respectively.
The BJP is the anchor of the Mahayuti alliance and has scored the best success rate among all NDA allies. In this backdrop, the party is likely to push for the Chief Minister's post with senior leader Devendra Fadnavis as its clear choice. But the Shinde Sena could dig in its heels and claim that the Mahayuti went into the elections with Eknath Shinde as the face of the government and that the policies and promises of the state government played a key role behind the huge mandate in these elections.
Earlier, when the insurgency led by Mr Shinde toppled the Uddhav Thackeray government and split the Shiv Sena, the BJP had taken a moral high ground by giving up the chief minister's post. But with over 120 MLAs in their kitty, they may not be so generous this time.
Because all three allies are acting in their strongholds, this verdict also creates a breeding ground for tough negotiations over ministerial posts.
A repeat of 2019?
Interestingly, the Maharashtra outcome could well create a situation similar to the post-poll scenario five years ago. In the 2019 state polls, the BJP had won 105 seats and the undivided Shiv Sena 56. After the results, differences emerged over the chief minister's post. While Uddhav Thackeray claimed an agreement on the rotating chief ministership, the BJP denied any such pact. Ultimately, the Sena pulled the plug, ending one of the most enduring alliances in the BJP's history. Five years later, there are many more players in Maharashtra's political landscape, with two factions, Sena and NCP, each waging an identity battle. And this time, as the numbers stand, the BJP and Eknath Shinde are where the BJP and Uddhav Thackeray were five years ago. The question then is: will Mr Shinde blink or will this victory create a bigger challenge for the BJP? Giving up the post of Chief Minister could be seen as a step backwards, and insisting on this risks a rift in the alliance. However, there is a big difference from 2019. With Ajit Pawar's NCP putting up a good show, the BJP needs just one of its two allies to achieve the magical figure. The Shinde Sena will keep this in mind as it pushes for a bargain.
Speaking to the media as the trends showed a clear NDA advantage, Mr Shinde gave a cautious answer to the Chief Minister's question. “We will sit down and decide,” he said, adding, “(Prime Minister Narendra) Modji is our senior.”
The Maha Vikas Aghadi subplot
A big story in these elections is the stunning setback suffered by the Congress-led INDIA alliance, which won 30 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the general elections months ago. The Maha Vikas Aghadi is now leading with just 52 seats, while the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) are ahead in 19, 19 and 14 seats respectively.
During its stellar show in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had bargained hard to get the best deal during seat-sharing. With the opposition party failing to convert these contests into victories, the Congress will find itself at the receiving end of criticism and accused of bringing down the alliance. Politically, it is a huge setback for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar in the battle for their party's identity. The two leaders, who tried to bounce back after mutinies split their party, now face an identity crisis as the breakaway factions far outpace their camps.