Elon Musk recently expressed his concerns about the decline of the world's population, calling it one of the world's most pressing challenges. Musk shared a post on X (formerly Twitter) highlighting a graph originally posted by the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account. The graph illustrates projected population changes between 2018 and 2100 for key countries including Nigeria, the United States, Indonesia and Pakistan, underscoring the looming demographic shifts.
The account wrote: “Population collapse is the greatest threat to humanity… Elon Musk.”
Musk retweeted the statement, writing: “Yes.”
Yes https://t.co/iiacYs29ju
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 7, 2025
For years, experts have recognized that the world is heading towards population decline, although there is an ongoing debate about the speed of this trend and which countries will be most affected. Major factors contributing to population decline include declining fertility rates, emigration and an aging population. In many countries, the average number of children per woman is below 2.1 – the threshold needed to maintain a stable population.
According to the Office for National Statistics, the average number of children per woman in England and Wales fell to 1.44 in 2023, the lowest on record. Global fertility rates have fallen significantly, from an average of 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to less than half that rate today. Daily Express reported.
A chart first published in 2020 illustrates that while both India and China had approximately 1.5 billion inhabitants in 2018, their trajectories are expected to diverge widely. India's population is expected to decline to just under 1.1 billion by 2100, a reduction of about 400 million. However, China's population is expected to drop dramatically to 731.9 million – a staggering drop from 731 million. This would position Nigeria, with a projected population of 790.1 million, as the second most populous country in the world by the end of the century.
The 2020 report from researchers at the University of Washington suggested that population declines, especially in China and India, could be happening faster than previously expected.
Despite fertility rates being below replacement level, the United States is expected to remain the fourth largest country in 2100, with population stability supported by positive net migration. Similarly, Canada and Australia are expected to maintain semi-stable populations through migration.
It is predicted that by 2100, current growth countries such as Indonesia and Pakistan will experience a slight population decline, while the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia are expected to surpass these countries in population size by the turn of the century.
Elon Musk has repeatedly expressed concerns about the decline of the world's population, warning that “population collapse is coming.”
