Take the situation in Donbas, the areas of eastern Ukraine partially controlled by Russian-backed separatists. In a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, Putin dropped the g-word to describe the situation there.
“According to our estimates, what is happening in the Donbas today is genocide,” Putin said.
Scholz pushed back, later telling reporters that Putin was “wrong” to use the term. But those comments were already in the public domain — and Putin had stepped up the rhetoric.
Putin’s complaint in the Donbas is not new. He has repeatedly spoken about what he describes as the violation of the rights of ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers in Ukraine, stating that it is within Russia’s right to intervene militarily to protect them.
But Putin seems to be arguing for his own version of a “responsibility to protect”, however far the situation in Donbas may be from a Rwanda – where more than 800,000 people, mostly Tutsis, were killed in the course of 100 days. in 1994 — or Srebrenica — where in 1995 more than 7,000, mostly Muslim, men and boys were slaughtered.
Calling genocide reflects Russia’s false claim that its neighbor Georgia committed genocide against civilians in the breakaway Republic of South Ossetia in August 2008. During that brief conflict, Russia launched a massive military incursion that penetrated deep into Georgian territory, a scenario facing Western policymakers today when it comes to Ukraine.
The Commission of Inquiry, Russia’s main law enforcement body, took Putin’s comments a step further on Wednesday when it announced it had opened a criminal investigation into alleged evidence of what it called “arbitrary shelling” of civilians in the Donbas region by Ukrainian forces. since 2014.
In a press release laced with politically charged language, the Commission of Inquiry said it had opened a criminal case under Part 1 of Article 356 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, which concerns mistreatment of the civilian population and use of prohibited substances. and methods by an international treaty in an armed conflict.
The statement of the Commission of Inquiry echoed Putin’s speech on genocide, saying: “The intent to exterminate the inhabitants of Donbas is obvious – the Russian investigation has recorded hundreds of such facts that could be considered evidence of the use of banned substances. and methods of warfare.”
Thousands of civilians have been killed and injured in the fighting since the conflict in the Donbas began in 2014, according to United Nations estimates. But announcing an investigation — not by an independent agency, and at the height of a confrontation with Ukraine — appears to be a clearly political move, regardless of the truth of the allegations.
Then there is the thorny issue of the legal status of the separatist regions of Donbas. Russia has never recognized the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) in the Donbas as sovereign and independent states, even though it has distributed Russian passports to the people living there.
Russian lawmakers earlier this week called on the Russian president to recognize the breakaway republics in Donbas as independent. That, too, creates a potential situation in which Russia could declare the need to respond to Ukraine’s “aggression” against those states.
But more production problems could also benefit the Kremlin, expanding the menu of options available to Putin.