The 2022 midterm elections are upon us, and here are seven things to watch out for in Tuesday’s midterm elections:
Who will run the house: Of all the major Tuesday night storylines, this is one few Democrats dispute: The party is unlikely to check the legislative chamber in January. Since Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to gain the majority, the GOP is likely to take back the House. The party is on the offensive in House racing across the country, but especially in the districts Biden handily won just two years ago, including once seemingly solid blue districts in Rhode Island, New York and Oregon.
Who controls the Senate: If control of the House seems more like an inevitable loss for Democrats, control of the currently evenly split Senate offers a surprising bright spot for the party — aided by voters who harbor unfavorable feelings about Republican candidates while also disapproving of Biden’s job performance. The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are voted in Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona and Georgia, where polls show each of those races is tight. The party is on the offensive in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two states that Biden won just two years ago.
Election deniers in major swing states: Republicans, who echo former President Donald Trump’s lies about widespread voter fraud, are trying to take over the electoral machinery of some swing states. The results in those states could have dramatic consequences in 2024, with Trump on the brink of a new presidential bid and candidates in pivotal swing states looking for positions they could use to undermine voters’ will.
Will Latino voters continue to shift to the right: Republicans will see if they build on the gains Trump made two years ago among Latino voters. Three House races in Texas’s heavily Spanish Rio Grande Valley will tell part of the story. Latino voters also make up crucial segments of the electorate in Florida’s Arizona, Nevada and Miami-Dade County.
The Impact of Presidential Politics: “If we lose the House and the Senate, it’s going to be two terrible years,” Biden said during a fundraiser on Friday. It’s an argument former President Barack Obama, who has been staggering for candidates in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania in recent weeks, made explicit at his final meeting in Philadelphia on Saturday.
The wave makers (or breakers): The shape of Congress over the next two years could become quite apparent within the first few hours after polls close on the East Coast — even if a handful of major races are too close to call. For the Democrats, a defeat in even two out of three games would mean a very, very bad night. The party, both nationally and in certain states, has increasingly placed its electoral fate in the notoriously fickle suburbs. If a Republican wave arrives, the first sightings of high tide will be the Atlantic coast.
The wait: As most Americans learned two years ago, Election Day can be a misnomer. Tuesday is the end of the vote. But in many states, the counting begins as well. That means many hard-fought races could be decided into the wee hours or even later this week. That’s partly the nature of counting — and sometimes retelling — but it’s also due to state laws instructing pollsters how to do their jobs and, in some states, forcing them to do so until later in the day.