The Russian guided-missile cruiser Moskva today lies deep under the Black Sea.
Ukraine claims it hit Moskva with missiles, sinking it. Russia has maintained that the reason for the sinking was a fire. On Friday, the United States backed Ukraine’s statement, with a senior defense official saying it believes two Ukrainian Neptune missiles hit the Russian warship in the Black Sea.
But what does the loss of the Moskva mean for the Russian war effort?
The biggest effect may be on Russian morale. As the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the Moskva was one of the most visible assets in the war in Ukraine. Although Moscow carefully manages the news about the war in Russia, it will be difficult to hide the sudden absence of such a large ship.
And its loss will cast doubt on Russia’s war capabilities, whether due to enemy action or accident.
“Both explanations for the Moskva sinking point to possible Russian shortcomings — either poor air defenses or incredibly lax security procedures and damage control on the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet,” analysts Mason Clark, Kateryna Stepanenko and George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War wrote in their daily war briefing.
Carl Schuster, a former US Navy captain, said the doubts went all the way to the Kremlin.
“It raises questions about the Navy’s capability 10 years after (Russian President Vladimir) Putin announced he would restore the Navy’s capabilities, morale and professionalism,” Schuster said.
“It appears he has failed to deliver on his promises for Russian military services,” Schuster said, noting that Russia had also suffered setbacks on the country.
But analysts are divided on the impact of the sinking on the Russian invasion.
The ISW analysts consider it a relatively minor blow, saying the ship was mainly used for cruise missiles at Ukrainian logistics centers and airports. Russia has land-based systems and attack aircraft that can do the same, they said.
However, they added that if it was indeed a Ukrainian missile that led to the sinking, the Russian navy would have to reconsider its operations, possibly moving ships further from Ukrainian territory and modifying their air defenses.
In Washington, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the Moskva’s main mission was air defense for Russian forces in the Black Sea.
“It’s going to have an impact on that ability, especially in the short term,” Kirby told reporters.
Read more about the sinking of the ship here.