Russian President Vladimir Putin couldn’t get a parade in the Ukrainian capital, but a parade is coming to Moscow soon and, whatever happens on the battlefield, the Russian president is likely to declare victory at that event in three weeks.
On May 9, Russia celebrates one of its most important national holidays, Victory Day – the anniversary of Germany’s surrender at the end of World War II. The Kremlin has used that anniversary for more than 70 years to commemorate successful heroism against the Nazis, but, just as importantly, to announce to the Russian people and to the country’s friends and enemies that Moscow’s leaders rule a great and mighty power.
Victory Day is all about military prowess, and when it comes in the middle of a war — even one the Russians aren’t allowed to call a “war” and one that state propaganda falsely claims is going perfectly according to plan — there’s almost no alternative but to use the opportunity to brag about victory.
Assessments by US intelligence, Russian foreign policy analysts and common sense all indicate that Putin will use May 9 as a sort of self-imposed deadline in Ukraine. It’s not a deadline to win the war — it probably won’t happen by then — but to pretend that Russia has won something. Something important. Something important.
The campaign over the next three weeks will focus sharply on eastern Ukraine, the Donbas region near the Russian border, where there is a greater concentration of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, and where Russia-backed separatists have been waging war against Russia for eight years. the Ukrainian state. year.
That’s where Putin will strive for a face-saving success, a concrete victory that he can bring to the Russian people to tell them he is still the larger-than-life leader whose “special military operation,” with all the hardship it causes for the Russians — let alone the disaster it is wreaking on Ukraine — has been worth the price tag. Sadly, his desperation for victory likely means the next three weeks will bring further death and destruction to Ukraine.
So far, Putin’s war has delivered almost the exact opposite of what he wanted: strengthening Ukraine’s sense of nationhood, strengthening and uniting NATO and the West, tarnishing the image of Russia’s armed forces and strategists, and so on. . And yet Putin has largely succeeded in hiding those facts from the Russian people, shutting down independent media outlets and pushing genuine Russian journalists to flee the country. That has resulted in almost all Russians consuming only state-controlled media, which is little more than propaganda.
But even dictators should be concerned about their domestic status. If the Russian people view Putin’s Ukrainian adventure as the disaster it has been so far, his grip on power could be weakened.
Even under state-controlled information, some facts may eventually become impossible to hide. Soldiers return home to tell their stories to friends and relatives. Thousands will not return. And perhaps a small part of the population still gets their news from abroad. Meanwhile, the Russian people, who are in great difficulty due to sanctions and the departure of many foreign companies from their country, may soon reach an economic breaking point. Anyway, slowly the truth will seep in.
That is why Putin urgently needs to show his campaign as triumphant.
On May 9, Putin will almost certainly be in Red Square, on a podium built in front of the mausoleum where the embalmed body of Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin has lain for more than 90 years, pretending all is well on his western front. He will ceremonially assess the troops – however much the military can spare from the massive deployment in Ukraine.
We’ll see if Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu makes an appearance. Until last year, he played a starring role, his chest studded with medals, resplendent after bloody victories in Syria and Chechnya. Today, he leads a humiliated force and lingering rumors of his passing refuse to die.
On that day, Putin will probably reveal something about Donbas. Perhaps he will declare it “liberated” from the “Nazis” he claims rule Ukraine (an absurdly false claim, given the Ukrainian president himself is Jewish). Perhaps Russia is holding a fake referendum, as it did after it conquered the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014. If Russia issues a referendum showing that most people in Donbas would like to join Russia, remember that a recent independent study does not support that claim.
Not long after the 2021 Victory Day parade, Putin released an article arguing that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people. It was an ominous sign that Putin would soon try to erase Ukraine’s identity, nation and its borders. Most people in Donbas, the only area of Ukraine where one would expect sympathy for Putin’s historical analysis, strongly reject that view. In an exclusive DailyExpertNews poll, fewer than one in five agreed that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.” Yet that is a key element or reason for Putin’s war.
Another strategic victory for Putin could come if the port city of Mariupol falls, as Russian forces attempt to establish a land corridor between the areas they control in Donbas and Crimea. That would strengthen Moscow’s control over much of Ukraine, amounting to much more than a symbolic victory. It would be a moral, strategic and economic blow to Ukrainian sovereignty.
To secure such a victory before May 9, Putin will almost certainly unleash even more anger in eastern Ukraine. That will be answered by Ukraine with uncompromising ferocity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told DailyExpertNews that Ukraine will not give up territory in the east to end the war. If Donbas falls, he thinks Putin will target Kiev again.
To withstand the renewed attack, Ukraine needs even more help from the West. And Ukraine needs it soon. Putin’s desire to declare victory within three weeks will bring more suffering. But it has also put the Russian leader in potential danger. Whatever he announces on May 9 must be credible. Otherwise, Putin knows he will become dangerously vulnerable.
After all, the parade takes place in Moscow, not Kiev.