The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (Secular) have made their partnership official and the latter will join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha elections.
Details about seat sharing are unclear at this time. Senior BJP leader BS Yediyurappa had claimed that the smaller party would contest four seats, but this was denied by JDS leader HD Kumaraswamy. He told NDTV “details will be revealed after Ganesh Chaturthi (next week).
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 25 seats. The JDS—along with Congress at the time—got one. Now, after a resounding defeat in the 2023 parliamentary elections – the BJP won 66 seats, less than half of the Congress’s 135, and the JDS the second-worst figure of 19 – the two defeated parties have joined forces.
Stacking the Lok Sabha results across the Assembly segment map, the Congress won 18, the BJP eight and the JDS two. Maintaining a strong presence in Karnataka is crucial for the BJP as it faces headwinds in Bihar and Maharashtra due to an exodus of allies.
State election results may not necessarily be repeated in general elections as the ‘Modi factor’ is likely to kick in for the BJP. According to Axis My India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the reason 19 percent voted for the BJP in the Assembly polls. That number was more than 50 percent in the 2019 elections, according to a study by the Center for Study of Developing Societies.
Despite this, surveys predict a loss of two six seats for the BJP, with a corresponding seven percent decline in vote share, as shown in the graph below.
JDS-BJP contest ahead of Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka
The Congress is optimistic and is creating a pool of its own labharthis, or welfare recipients, to counter the BJP’s model being implemented by the Centre. Now Vokkaligas and Lingayats have voted for it, apart from the AHINDA (marginalized classes and Muslims) who form a large social coalition.
The local BJP unit is in disarray amid reports of intense factionalism. So much so that it has not yet been able to name the candidate for the Leader of Opposition as the party hands the responsibility back to Mr Yediyurappa.
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has even speculated that the BJP may have decided to do the unthinkable and back Mr Kumaraswamy for the post.
JDS patriarch and ex-prime minister Deve Gowda has said the decision to ally with the BJP was “vital” to “save” the regional party. The alliance, he said, “does not mean that JDS has nothing left… even the BJP should not think that.”
The JDS is facing an existential crisis after halving the number of members of the General Assembly: 19 in 2023 versus 37 in 2018.
Almost all these seats (17 seats to be precise) were in traditional strongholds of old Mysuru and Bengaluru. The JDS now fears an ‘Operation Haath’ by the Congress that will target the few MLAs it has, similar to the ‘Operation Kamala’ being carried out by the BJP to steal away rival legislators.
Mr Deve Gowda has alleged that Siddaramaiah conspired to end the JDS to avenge the 2018 election defeat against a JDS candidate and for developments that forced his explosion in 2005.
The JDS was also irked with the Congress for not following the coalition’s dharma and inability to transfer votes to its candidates in the 2019 elections, leading to the defeat of Mr Deve Gowda from Tumkur and son of Mr. Kumaraswmay, Nikhil, from Mandya.
The Congress did not join the JDS in 2023 and put a big dent in the Vokkaliga vote bank. According to the CSDS, community support for the JDS fell 30 percent in 2023, with 22 percent of this being absorbed by Congress.
The Congress has also proposed Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga leader, to compete directly with the Gowda family. Now the JDS stands to lose further support from the influential community as now even the Congress can appoint a Vokkaliga Chief Minister.
The BJP hopes that the JDS can transfer its Vokkaliga votes to the party and help it make gains in southern Karnataka (Old Mysuru and Bengaluru regions). In return, the JDS will hope to get votes for Brahmin, Lingayat and some OBCs, which should compensate for the loss of minority, tribal and Dalit voters to the Congress. Both sides win in the short term, although there is a trust deficit.
The BJP needs to maintain its numbers in Karnataka and also needs allies in the southern part of India to prove its acceptability to the voters. And as Mr. Deve Gowda said, the JDS needs the BJP to survive.
However, it is a Catch-22 situation for the JDS as the BJP may be aiming to make a permanent theft, or even a temporary dent, in the socialist party’s voting base. After all, it cannot dismiss the risk of another Shiv Sena-like strike in the long run.
The BJP’s aggressive push in the Old Mysuru region – where it gained vote share and helped the Congress win more seats – hurt the JDS in the 2023 elections. The historically frosty relationship of power transfer in 2007 has an overhang on this newfound friendship.
However, the need of the hour is for both to come together. It’s a win-win situation for both parties.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
