Europe had experienced a lot of criticism from Donald Trump during his first term as president. He had questioned NATO's continued relevance, viewed NATO as a financial burden on the US because Europeans were not spending enough on their own defense, and demanded that they spend 2% of their GDP on defense. He showed his contempt for the EU by supporting Brexit.
The belief that Russia had interfered in the US presidential election to Trump's advantage had raised suspicions that he could adopt a more flexible policy towards Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine. His right-wing, nationalist political orientation clashed with Europe's left-wing liberalism. His slogan Make America Great Again (MAGA) created fear because it was seen as inward-looking, protectionist, and leaning toward isolationism. European politicians came to the conclusion that Europe and Trump's America no longer shared the same values.
Can Europe cope?
Trump has now returned to power with an overwhelming majority. Republicans have also gained control of both houses of the US Congress. Trump undoubtedly believes that his re-election, despite all legal and other efforts by Democrats to disqualify him and prevent him from contesting, has validated his proclaimed domestic and foreign policy agendas. Europe and others will have to deal with the unpredictability, impetuosity and self-confidence of this idiosyncratic president.
Trump has already put pressure on Europe before his inauguration through his power play by questioning the continent's territorial integrity by laying claim to Greenland. He also had his eyes on Greenland during his first term, but this time he is brazen about acquiring it on grounds of 'national security' and access to its natural resources such as oil, gas, lithium etc. Trump has threatened to to pursue his claim through economic coercion or use of force where necessary, as he considers ownership of Greenland an “absolute necessity.”
The president-elect clearly wants the US to become a major Arctic power, pending the melting of the Arctic ice, which would open a vital trade route between Europe/Asia and the Americas and allow the extraction of the oceans' rich oil resources. , gas and also other minerals. Currently, Russia dominates the Arctic geographically, and China is also eyeing it for its potential for trade connectivity. This is reminiscent of the ruthless great power politics of the 19th century.
This attack on Europe's territorial integrity is pushing Europe against the wall. Its dependence on the US for its security offers the country no real opportunity to resist. The response from European leaders has been to slow down and not challenge Trump head-on. The Danish Prime Minister acknowledges America's “security problems”, but also states that Greenland is not for sale. The US already has a military base in Greenland, which can be expanded, and therefore the argument of security concerns seems questionable. The autonomous Greenland government has made hedging statements. The German Chancellor has resorted to a non-specific statement to the effect that the “inviolability of borders applies to everyone”. France's foreign minister has avoided mentioning the US by name, while noting that the EU “would not allow other countries of the world to attack its sovereign borders, whoever they are”.
Lost for answers
The European Commission has declined to “go into the details” when asked to comment on Trump's claims. Van der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, and Antonia Costa, the head of the European Council, evasively stated that the “EU will always protect our citizens and the integrity of our democracies and freedoms” and, rather pointlessly, that “we We look forward to positive cooperation with the new US administration based on our common values and shared interests. In a rough world, Europe and the US are stronger together.”
Europe is ashamed and does not know how to respond appropriately. The country's geopolitical weakness has been exposed, diminishing its status as a collective power. It sees itself threatened by Russian power from the East and now by American power from the West – one an enemy and the other an ally. In the case of Russia – which is different from that of the US wanting to take Greenland – it is not territory belonging to an EU state that is being annexed or threatened with annexation. The message from all this is that Europe is unable to provide for its own security. It depends on US-led NATO for protection, but it is NATO's leader who is weakening NATO solidarity, with the uncomfortable message that Trump's America sees Europe as almost redundant.
A double bond
The dilemma for Europe is that if it were to react strongly and decide to condemn the US territorial offer, it would need an internal consensus, and if it were to try to divide NATO. The NATO building, which member states, especially in Eastern and Central Europe, consider essential for Europe's security, could be cracking given Trump's well-known disdain for the transatlantic alliance. A strong anti-American reaction could also weaken Europe politically vis-à-vis Russia. Europe's unconditional discourse against Russia for trying to annex the territory of a sovereign state and change the map of Europe for the first time since World War II, versus an accommodating attitude towards the US for a somewhat similar goal, would could become untenable.
Europe's problem is that it cannot simply build its security on the basis of countries individually increasing their defense budgets. The smaller European countries – and there are many – increasing their defense budgets mean little. To be autonomously secure, Europe must rely on its own arms industry, European countries must buy weapons produced in Europe, and Europe must have some kind of centralized European command structure. This will require a deepening of the EU as a sovereign entity, on which there is no political consensus among Europeans.
As things stand, European security remains frozen in the Cold War matrix, with Russia posing an enduring threat and the US standing as a bulwark against it. Although France and Britain are nuclear powers, their nuclear umbrellas are politically unacceptable to many European countries. They would prefer to rely solely on the US nuclear umbrella, especially in light of Russia's formidable nuclear arsenal.
Narrative wars
European public opinion could become confused if tensions between the EU and US over the Greenland issue become bitter, and could begin to influence public attitudes towards Russia, with increasing support for a compromise with Russia on Ukraine instead of a complete refusal to participate in this issue. a dialogue with Moscow. The discourse in some quarters could well turn into a discourse of American imperialism versus Russian imperialism.
On the Ukraine issue: Trump's repeated statements about entering into dialogue with Russia to find a solution, the incoming US National Security Advisor's statement that Russia cannot be expelled from all the territory it holds in its owns, and the implicit message that Ukraine will have to do so. The yield area, as well as the rumors about organizing a meeting between Trump and Putin, are huge political blows for Europe, whose leadership has continuously demonized Russia and Putin and closed the doors to any dialogue with Moscow. Trump is upending Europe's position of full alignment with the Biden administration's position on the conflict in Ukraine. There are concerns in Brussels that Trump could lift some sanctions on Russia as part of a possible deal.
Apart from security issues, Trump's presidency could increase economic pressure on the EU. This is in addition to the economic costs the EU is paying due to Ukraine-related economic sanctions against Russia. During his first term, Trump had attacked Germany for its mercantilist trade policies. Germany's current economic problems increase Europe's vulnerability to American economic pressure.
Clash of values
Trump's personal deep antipathy towards 'wokeism', DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and gender identity issues will be another clash of 'values' with Europe. Elon Musk, who reinforces many of Trump's political and social views, has already become a major problem for the European political class. He openly interferes in European politics, for example by supporting the right-wing nationalist party (AfD) in Germany and the right-wing Reform Party in Great Britain. He has brutally attacked Prime Minister Keith Starmer in the grooming gangs scandal, calling him “complicit in the rape of Britain”. Newly elected Vice President JDVance has also attacked Britain for failing to suppress Islamism in the country. Trump Jr. has also joined in criticizing the Labor Party. This does not bode well for the special relationship between the US and Britain.
All in all, Europe's dependence on the US and its limited room for maneuver have been brutally exposed with Trump's coming ascension to the White House.
(Kanwal Sibal was foreign minister and ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia, and deputy chief of mission in Washington.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author