There are no known significant asteroid threats in the near future. (representative)
The US space agency NASA has discovered in a hypothetical exercise that a potentially dangerous asteroid has a 72% chance of hitting Earth and that we may not be adequately prepared to prevent this.
NASA conducted the fifth biennial Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise in April, according to an official report from the space agency. On June 20, NASA unveiled the summary of the exercise, held at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland.
The tabletop exercise involved nearly 100 representatives from various U.S. government agencies and international employees in addition to NASA.
Although there are no known significant asteroid threats in the near future, this was done to assess Earth's ability to respond effectively to the threat of a potentially dangerous asteroid.
NASA stated that the hypothetical exercise also provided valuable insights into the risks, response options and opportunities for collaboration that different scenarios pose.
Planetary Defense Officer Emeritus at NASA Headquarters in Washington, Lindley Johnson, said: “The uncertainties in these initial conditions for the exercise required participants to consider a particularly challenging set of conditions. A major asteroid impact may be the only natural disaster that humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent.”
The summary of the Tabletop exercise noted: “During the exercise, participants considered potential national and global responses to a hypothetical scenario in which a previously undetected asteroid was identified that, according to initial calculations, had a 72% chance of to hit Earth in about 14 years.”
To be precise: “72% chance of an impact on Earth on July 12, 2038 (warning time of 14.25 years).”
However, this preliminary observation is not enough to accurately determine the asteroid's size, composition and long-term trajectory, NASA added.
Speaking about the most important gaps on Earth, the summary highlighted the following: “Decision-making processes and risk tolerance are not understood. Limited willingness to quickly carry out necessary space missions. Timely global coordination of reporting deserves attention. No asteroid impact disaster management plans have been defined.”
It's worth noting that this was the first exercise to use data from NASA's DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission. DART is the first space demonstration of a technology to defend the planet against possible asteroid impacts.
DART also confirmed that a kinetic impactor could change an asteroid's trajectory, NASA said.
The report informed that NASA, in an effort to ensure that Earth will have time to evaluate and respond to a potentially dangerous asteroid, is developing NEO Surveyor (Near-Earth Object Surveyor).
NEO Surveyor is an infrared space telescope. It is specifically designed to accelerate humanity's ability to discover most of the potentially dangerous near-Earth objects many years before they could become an impact threat. NASA's NEO Surveyor will launch in June 2028.