Russia has lost about 3% to 5% of its tanks, planes, artillery and other military assets in Ukraine — compared to Ukrainian losses of about 10% of its capabilities, according to two US officials familiar with the latest intelligence.
US and Western officials warn that those ratios are difficult to calculate and are likely to change — not only as both sides continue to suffer losses as the week-old war continues, but also as both Russian and Ukrainian troops are supplied.
But the stark imbalance underscores the grim assessments by US and Western officials that, despite stronger-than-expected resistance from Ukraine that has kept major cities out of Russian hands, it is likely to continue to be overwhelmed as Russia enters an intensified and less discriminatory phase of its attack. .
And even despite Western aid, US officials say Ukraine is still vastly lagging behind Russia. Moscow initially relied heavily on its more modern precision cruise missiles, according to an intelligence source familiar with Ukraine’s military infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued to burn its supply of shoulder-fired Javelin missiles.
“I’ve talked to Biden many times and I’ve often told them that Ukraine will resist and fight stronger than anyone else, but we won’t make it against Russia alone,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told DailyExpertNews’s Matthew Chance. Tuesday in an interview.
Ukraine “need”[s] the classic bits of kit now. They need bullets, they need bandages. They need fuel. They will need ammunition, in addition to humanitarian aid, to help with medical aid and hospital maintenance, both for combat wounded and wounded civilians,” a senior Western intelligence official said.
“And they will need a lot of ammunition and arms supplies, because the Russian armed forces are both numerically and qualitatively superior,” said this person.
Nearly 6,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the first six days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Zelensky claimed Wednesday morning. The senior Western intelligence official said Wednesday morning that the Western figure is comparable – about 5,800 – but warned that “my number is from yesterday”.
US officials believe Russia is now changing tactics, a US official said. While Moscow started with a more modern combined weapons approach — one that also seemed to eschew civilian infrastructure — it has now shifted to what this official called a “slow destruction” strategy. Officials expect continued bombardments with heavy weapons and the possibility that “tens of thousands” of troops will march towards major Ukrainian cities, this person said.
Another Western official also said there is a feeling the conflict may shift into a grinding war of attrition — not the flashy campaign that both Russian President Vladimir Putin and US intelligence had suspected would trigger the fall of Kiev within days.
