DailyExpertNews
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Five days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it seems that things haven’t quite gone according to plan for Vladimir Putin so far.
Western intelligence officials have repeatedly informed over the weekend that Russian troops have encountered “stiffer than expected” resistance from an over-manned Ukrainian army.
Russia has so far failed to take key cities across Ukraine, including the capital Kiev. On Sunday, Ukrainian forces successfully repulsed a Russian advance at a strategic airport near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which is under almost constant attack.
In addition to a fierce backlash from Ukrainian troops and civilians, the Russian invasion has faced logistical challenges, with soldiers on the front lines running out of fuel, ammunition and food.
“They have problems,” a NATO official said of Russia’s armed forces, pointing to the alliance’s latest intelligence. “They don’t have diesel, they go way too slow and morale is clearly an issue.”
But a senior US defense official told reporters on Sunday that Russia has used only two-thirds of the total combat power applied to the mission, leaving a significant amount of troops available to push the offensive forward.
And on Monday, a mile-long convoy of Russian military vehicles arrived in the Ukrainian capital, while Kiev intelligence also suggests Belarus is ready to join the Russian invasion, a Ukrainian official said.
Representatives of Ukraine and Russia met at the Belarus border on Monday. In those talks, Ukraine will push for an “immediate ceasefire” and the withdrawal of Russian troops — although realistically no one expects that to happen.
It appears that Putin misjudged not only Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, but also how harshly the international community would act against Russia in the event of an invasion.
For years, the Russian president has encountered little resistance from the West because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, his brutal support for the Syrian regime and aggression in other countries.
Despite all their strong denunciations of Putin and his regime, Western countries still bought gas from Russia, provided a safe haven for Russian oligarchs and maintained relatively normal diplomatic relations with Moscow.
But this time — despite a few early rocky spots where Western nations have been accused of not hitting Russia hard enough — Putin has faced an unusually united Western alliance.
From unprecedented sanctions already hurting Russia’s economy to international sport slowly hitting Moscow, Russia’s international pariah status is becoming more acute by the hour.
The economic pain will only get worse as time goes on. The ruble lost about 20% of its value against the dollar on Monday afternoon, and the Russian central bank has raised interest rates from 9.5% to 20%, a move that will hit Russian citizens in the pockets.
Those same citizens may soon wonder why Putin is risking so much for a war that was not necessary.
Of course things on the ground are very fluid and can change very quickly.
There is little hope that Monday’s talks will lead to a de-escalation, and no one expects this war to end in the foreseeable future – by force or consent. But it is likely that now that Putin has come this far, he will be throwing more at Ukraine in the coming days.
But as the invasion enters its second week, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Putin’s best-drafted plans are meeting more resistance than he — and many of his opponents — ever imagined.
