According to the head of the UK’s largest espionage agency, Moscow has few military weapons and “despair on many levels in Russian society” is averted.
“We believe Russia is short of ammunition, it is certainly short of friends,” Jeremy Fleming, director of Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), told BBC Radio 4’s ‘Today’ programme.
“We have seen, because of the mobilization statement, that there is a shortage of troops. So I think the answer to that is pretty clear. Russia and Russian commanders are concerned about the state of their military machinery,” Fleming said on Tuesday.
When asked whether the Kremlin is desperate amid President Vladimir Putin’s faltering military campaign in Ukraine, Fleming added: “We can see that despair on many levels in Russian society and in the Russian military machine.”
Fleming’s comments came after Russia launched a spate of deadly attacks on Monday in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities, damaging critical infrastructure and killing at least 19 people.
“Russia, as we saw from yesterday’s terrible attacks, still has a very capable military machine. It can launch weapons, it has deep, deep stocks and expertise. And yet it has been stretched very wide in Ukraine,” Fleming said.
The violent attacks follow Putin’s announcement of an immediate military escalation in September, in which he threatened nuclear retaliation.
“I think any talk about nuclear weapons is very dangerous and we have to be very careful how we talk about it,” Fleming said when asked about Putin’s nuclear threats.
“I would hope we would see indicators if they went down that road. But let’s be very clear about that, if they consider that, that would be a catastrophe in the way a lot of people have talked about,” he added. . .
In a speech later Tuesday, Fleming will also say that Russians are increasingly calculating the costs of the invasion of Ukraine and see “how badly” Putin “misjudged the situation”.
“With little effective internal challenge, his decision-making has proved flawed. It is a high-stakes strategy that leads to strategic errors of judgment. Their profits are being reversed,” Fleming said in a speech at the annual security lecture of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.
The cost to Russia – in people and equipment is staggering. We know – and the Russian commanders on the ground know – that they are running out of supplies and ammunition. The Russian troops are exhausted.”
The senior spy chief will also say ordinary Russians are “fleeing conscription”.
“They know that their access to modern technologies and outside influences will be drastically limited. And they feel the magnitude of the terrible human cost of his war of choice,” he will say.