The new year has not brought any relief to tensions over Taiwan. On January 13, the people elected a pro-independence candidate, William Lai Ching-te, as their next president, angering China. Two days later it was China's turn, with its officials announcing that tiny Nauru was cutting ties with Taiwan in favor of China. On January 24, the US Navy sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait, in what China described as a “provocative act”. Amid this drama, a new diplomatic battle intensifies, threatening to set the stage for war.
For more than seventy years, the Beijing government led by the Communist Party has been fighting for official recognition by the world. Lately, it has opened a new front in this campaign. The party not only wants to be the sole representative of China, but also wants countries to adopt the position that Taiwan is an alienable part of China. A victory in this battle would give China's leaders a major diplomatic bludgeon – as well as a legal basis for an invasion of the island.
When Nauru made the leap, it became the 183rd country to recognize China. That compares with about 160 twenty years ago and between 80 and 90 thirty years before (when there were fewer countries). Most major states made the switch a while ago. Britain and many other Western countries established ties with China in the early 1970s. America, a laggard, did so in 1979. When it comes to recognition, China is winning, and has been so for some time. Only eleven countries (and the Vatican) still formally recognize Taiwan.
The new front is more complicated. These 183 countries view Taiwan in very different ways. At one end of the spectrum are states that treat the island as a de facto independent country, even if they do not recognize it. On the other side are those who endorse China's claim. The Economist analyzed statements from Chinese foreign ministries from 2023, all in Mandarin. We estimate that at least 28 countries have endorsed China's view on matters. In October, for example, Pakistan said it “strongly supports” China's push for reunification (there is no mention of this being peaceful); a statement from Syria in September used similar language. Increasing that number is now a concern of Chinese officials. In China's view, such support helps make it clear that unification is justified, if necessary by force.
Most Western countries are on the pro-Taiwan end of the spectrum – and are moving further in that direction, even as they formally pursue a policy of non-recognition. America has eased restrictions on interactions between its officials and those on the island. A visit there by Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House of Representatives, led to a crisis in 2022. America has increased military aid to Taiwan. President Joe Biden has even said America would defend the country against invasion, though his aides often walk back such statements to maintain “strategic ambiguity.”
Perhaps most frustrating for Chinese officials is that America is dragging its allies along. The Biden administration has encouraged countries to “expand engagement” with Taiwan. A steady stream of Western parliamentary delegations have visited the island. Australia, Britain, Canada and France have sent warships through the Taiwan Strait (which China calls its territorial waters). The EU and the G7 have called for stability in the area.
The Czech Republic has been active in this area. It has its own history of resistance to authoritarian power. Now it embraces Taiwan. Czech parliamentary leaders have visited the island with large delegations in tow. Petr Pavel, the Czech president, spoke on the phone with his Taiwanese counterpart, Tsai Ing-wen, last year. Mr Pavel was also the first European head of state to congratulate Taiwan on its elections this month. Czech officials say none of this implies formal recognition and that their actions are in line with the country's one-China policy. But in China, the sense of crisis is growing as democratic countries erode the meaning of “one China,” says Fukuda Madoka of Hosei University in Japan.
China has therefore focused its efforts (and economic pressure) on developing countries. Most of the countries that have affirmed their position on Taiwan are poor. China has interwoven its positions in statements with several groups of African, Arab, Central Asian and Pacific countries. It has also promoted them in new forums such as the Group of Friends in Defense of the Charter of the United Nations, which also includes Iran, Russia and North Korea. At a recent group meeting, China called itself a “defender of the Charter of the United Nations.” international order”.
Recently, China has claimed that the UN itself endorses its view of Taiwan. China points to Resolution 2758, adopted in 1971, which recognized the government in Beijing as China's sole legal representative at the UN. The measure resulted in the expulsion of representatives of Chiang Kai-shek, then leader of Taiwan. But Taiwan was not mentioned by name. US officials claim this leaves the island's status up in the air. However, China has successfully pressured countries like Nauru to cite the resolution when talking about Taiwan. It scored another victory in January when Dennis Francis, a Trinidadian diplomat who chairs the UN General Assembly, suggested that the body's work would align with China's view on matters and be guided by Resolution 2758.
China can also claim some success in this area. It has also convinced many countries to adopt their jargon on issues such as human rights and development. With Taiwan, the battle threatens to go beyond language. In recent years, China has increased its aggressive activity in the Taiwan Strait, with aircraft flying close to the island. China is changing the status quo militarily and diplomatically, said Lai I-Chung of Taiwan Thinktank, a policy organization. That does not bode well for the future. According to China, the more countries adopt their position on Taiwan, the more coverage it has to translate words into action.