Chinese leaders surprised by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz

Cynicism about American politics is pervasive in China. The turmoil in the presidential race since June has highlighted the limitations of China’s understanding of its superpower rival. When Barack Obama was elected in 2008, his appeal shattered the widespread belief in China, reinforced by relentless official propaganda, that America was so deeply racist that a black person could not be president. China’s latest report on human rights in America, published in May, said racism was getting worse, while gender discrimination was “rampant.” But America could elect its second black president, and its first female one.

For much of this year, the Biden-Trump battle has been a boon for Chinese propagandists, allowing them to portray American democracy as a fight between two men past their cognitive prime, whose bouts resemble playground brawls. By retreating, Biden has disrupted that narrative and encouraged some Chinese to reflect on their own system, in which Xi, 71, seems determined to remain leader for life. Last month, a blogger on NetEase, a Chinese internet platform, wrote that “for some people, the greatest contribution they can make to the party, the country and the people is to hand over power, step off the stage and go home and play with their grandchildren.” The next sentence — “That’s right, I’m talking about you, Biden” — did little to appease China’s censors, who deleted the post.

In 2008, Obama had not yet been to China and had little experience with foreign policy. Before becoming vice president, Ms. Harris was in a similar position: a biography of her published in 2021 mentions China only once. As vice president, she has more experience with diplomacy. She has made 17 foreign trips, several to Asia, including one in 2022 where she briefly met Xi on the sidelines of a summit in Thailand (pictured).

Some signals point to continuity with Biden’s China policy. On trade, there is little sign that Ms. Harris will roll back the tariffs maintained by the Trump and Biden administrations. In her first major economic policy speech on Aug. 16, Ms. Harris appeared to criticize Trump’s plans to raise tariffs further, but she endorsed the idea of economic policies that help the middle class, the Biden administration’s justification for its protectionism. On diplomacy, she has condemned “intimidation and coercion in the South China Sea” during her vice-presidential trips and in 2022 met with William Lai Ching-te, who has since become president of Taiwan. If there is a shift, it will be subtle. Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group, a consulting firm, said that as president, she would be less likely than Biden to portray geopolitics as a battle between autocracy and democracy, and would emphasize the importance of upholding global rules and norms. “I think this will make it easier for the US to have honest conversations, not just with the Chinese, but with other countries around the world who will not hear from Kamala: 'It's our way or the highway,'” he says.

Complicating the assessment of China is Mr. Walz’s potential role as an adviser to Ms. Harris on China. In 1989 and 1990, he taught English and American history at a high school in Foshan, in the southern province of Guangdong. Later, when he worked as a teacher in America in the 1990s and 2000s, he organized numerous trips to China for students. He raved about the warm welcome he received there. “Every move Harris makes … has a real presidential feel to it,” said one commentator on Weibo, a microblogging platform, in response to Mr. Walz’s appointment. Another commentator praised the move, saying it was like giving wings to a tiger.

The claim that Mr. Walz is sympathetic to China also has supporters in America. On August 16, Republicans in the House of Representatives launched an investigation into his “long and intimate relationship with China.” In fact, Mr. Walz is no defender of the Chinese government. His year in Foshan coincided with a fierce crackdown on dissent following the bloody suppression of the pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989. Five years later, he married a fellow teacher on the same day in June. “He wanted a date he would never forget,” a newspaper in Nebraska, where he grew up, quoted his wife, Gwen Walz, as saying. After being elected to the House of Representatives in 2006, Mr. Walz served on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China and sponsored bills aimed at punishing China for human rights abuses. His record has already come under intense scrutiny in China. In the newspaper, a Shanghai news outlet, Diao Daming, a scholar, wrote: “It is difficult to determine whether these actions reflect Walz's personal views and positions, but it certainly points to the recent ideas and prejudices of the Democratic Party.”

For China, the Harris-Walz ticket is unexpected, but the best bet is that it promises continuity on defense and trade, and possibly a greater emphasis on human rights. Faced with this prospect, some in China are yearning for a new Trump administration that could unleash chaos but also, they hope, strain America’s alliances and undermine its global image. Yan Xiaodong of HuaYu, a Beijing think tank, recently noted that Trump had shown a “businesslike mentality and approach” to Taiwan. Yan recalled Mao’s words in 1970: “I don’t like the Democratic Party. I prefer the Republican Party.” The comment, Yan said, offers “profound insight”: the theory is that it makes it easier for Republicans to negotiate with opponents without appearing weak. In 1972, Richard Nixon visited the country, ending nearly a quarter-century of American efforts to isolate it.

If she wins in November, Ms. Harris will likely visit China for the first time in 2025. Could a diplomatic breakthrough happen then? It’s worth keeping expectations low. Just ask Mr. Obama about his first trip. In 2009, he tried to give the Chinese a taste of American political culture by meeting with students in a sort of town hall in Shanghai. Even that small gesture “made Chinese officials nervous,” according to Jeffrey Bader, an adviser, resulting in “agonizing hand-to-hand combat” between officials on both sides. A future President Harris would find that Mr. Xi, who took over three years later, is even less inclined to compromise — or to tolerate such democratic deceptions.