I think, given the circumstances, they are handling it as best they can. Write big, what the administration is doing right now is definitely what I would recommend doing. But I don’t know if we can tell if it’s going to work or not. The real test will take place over a long period of time. I don’t think this will be a short, sharp crisis.
What do you mean?
Putin has been trying to get a grip on Ukraine for years. In 2006 they cut off the gas supply to Ukraine. He’s been in power for 22 years and all that time he’s had Ukraine in his sights somehow, and it’s intensified over time. Putin wants to be the person who, under his supervision, during his presidency, pulls Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit. And he could be president until 2036, in terms of what’s possible for him.
Is this fundamentally ideological for him, or geopolitical?
It’s about him personally – his legacy, his view of himself, his view of Russian history. Putin clearly sees himself as a protagonist in Russian history, putting himself in the place of previous Russian leaders who have tried to rally in what he sees as the Russian land. Ukraine is the outlier, the one that escaped and that he must bring back.
And does that mean he’s acting irrationally here?
No, I don’t think he’s irrational from his perspective. He’s in a different frame than us. He lives in history and his story of history. He is also part of a larger group of security officers in Russia who have opposed NATO expansion; they want the US out of Europe.
But it seems he has made his security situation worse.
That’s from our perspective, on the outside. We don’t know exactly what he’s saying internally. From his point of view right now, he has put pressure on Ukraine and the Ukrainian economy is being crushed. He has all our attention. We all run around and do nothing but talk about him. As he would say, he now lets us listen to him. Whether we hear him on the terms he wants is another matter.