The recent parliamentary elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have once again questioned the reliability of exit poll predictions. Some argue that Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) are not foolproof, or that the Election Commission of India (ECI) and the mainstream media favor the ruling dispensation. On some such questions about the country's electoral politics, urban Indians are largely divided along party lines, the latest round of the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey shows.
The survey, conducted in July 2024, weeks after the Lok Sabha election results, found that those leaning towards the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were more positive about these big questions, while Congress supporters were skeptical were.
This was the twelfth round of our biannual survey, with 10,314 respondents in more than 200 towns and cities. The studies are being conducted by Mint in collaboration with research partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Center for Policy Research. Conducted since 2018, the surveys shed light on the beliefs, choices and concerns of India's young urban population.
In the final round, 45% of respondents were post-millennials (born after 1996) and 39% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996). About 46% said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was their most favorite party, while 15% said the same for the Congress.
Burning questions
Did the poll panel do right in conducting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in a free and fair manner? Nearly three in five (58%) respondents gave a positive assessment, while 42% felt this was inadequate. BJP supporters were the most satisfied with 67% approving of the ECI's behavior, compared to only 46% of Congress supporters. Of those who prefer other parties or do not identify with any party, 53% were satisfied.
A greater share (61%) supported the continued use of EVMs and dismissed the tampering allegations as unfounded. The rest favored the paper voting system because they believed it would be more foolproof. Opinions on EVMs again varied depending on political affiliation – BJP supporters (71%) were the most positive, compared to just 46% of Congress supporters. Among other things, a majority favored the use of EVMs over the paper ballot.
During the election campaign, did the media give favorable coverage to the BJP, or did they give fair coverage to all political parties? Respondents were again divided, with 54% believing that the media had favored the BJP, while 46% felt that media reporting was fair to all. Interestingly, 47% of BJP supporters agreed that the media favored their party, while 53% claimed that the party provided fair reporting. On the contrary, 64% of Congress supporters thought the media was biased; Supporters of other parties (60%) and non-identifiers (57%) also shared this perception.
Are exit polls reliable?
Public opinion was divided over the integrity of the exit poll projections, with 46% believing the 2024 election predictions were fraudulent and smacked of a scam, as claimed by Congress shortly after the outcome. The rest said exit polls can go wrong, but allegations of fraud were unfounded. Among BJP supporters, three-fifths (60%) trusted the exit polls and rejected fraud claims. But 56% of Congress supporters believed the exit polls were fraudulent. The research shows that trust in exit polls is closely linked to party loyalty, with BJP supporters showing more confidence in their legitimacy.
Opinions on the frequency of elections and simultaneous state and national elections are mixed. Overall, one in three respondents (33%) believed that holding multiple election cycles is a waste of money and time, while another third (34%) said the status quo of staggered elections strengthens democracy . Meanwhile, 19% expressed concern that such a move could cause problems, and the remainder (14%) were unfamiliar with the proposal. The Cabinet recently approved the idea based on recommendations of a panel headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind.
Older respondents were more likely to view multiple elections as wasteful, while post-millennials were more likely to believe that alternating election cycles strengthen democracy. Political affiliation also plays a role: 41% of BJP supporters believed that multiple election cycles waste resources, compared to only 24% of Congress supporters, who were more likely to favor staggered elections (39%).
The research shows that the perception of electoral issues is increasingly determined by party relations. BJP supporters generally have more confidence in the ECI, EVMs and exit polls, and are more likely to view media reporting as fair. Supporters of Congress and smaller parties, on the other hand, often feel anxious and experience prejudice. Opinions are divided on the issue of simultaneous elections and there is general agreement on what is expected from coalition arrangements.
(The authors are affiliated with the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi)
(This is the second part of a series on the findings of the twelfth round of the survey. The first part looked at the impact of the 2024 elections on political preferences. Note that these surveys mainly focus on urban, affluent netizens, with 90% of respondents falling under the NCCS-A socio-economic consumer category. Full methodology note here.)
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