The 18th Lok Sabha elections ended the brutal majority that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had enjoyed for a decade. Although the party managed to retain power, its fate now depends on the support of its allies, and the opposition has gained strength. The election results are also reflected in the responses to the latest edition of Mints survey of urban Indians in July.
The twelfth round of the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey showed little change in the BJP's approval ratings in urban India, with 46% of respondents identifying the BJP as their most favorite party. Congress improved to 15% from 11% in the previous round in December 2023. Despite making the biggest gains in the four years since the survey included this question, the Congress remains a distant second to the BJP.
The survey had 10,314 respondents in more than 200 towns and cities and was conducted by Mint in collaboration with research partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Center for Policy Research. Eleven such surveys have been conducted so far since 2018, each shedding light on the beliefs, choices and concerns of India's young urban population. In the final round, 45% of respondents were post-millennials (born after 1996) and 39% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996).
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Campaign effect
The survey suggested that the BJP has lost support among some deprived sections of society. The weakest support was among those in lower socio-economic groups (33%) and scheduled castes and tribes (34%). (The BJP's support base among the lower socio-economic strata was lower to begin with.) The Congress saw its support improve across categories.
Many post-election comments attributed the BJP's setback to complacency. The study found that the BJP reached more voters with its campaign than the Congress, but its mobilization efforts may not have reached all its supporters, while that of the Congress went beyond its supporters. A third of respondents said the BJP had approached them through door-to-door campaigns, phone calls and WhatsApp messages. Just under a quarter said the same about Congress. The BJP's mobilization has been weakest among poorer Indians and post-millennials.
The survey asked respondents to rate the first two terms of the Narendra Modi government. About 29% rated the first term as better, compared to 22% who said the same in the previous round. A fifth thought the second term was better, compared to 22% previously. The share of those who said both terms were equally good fell from 35% to 28%, while the share of those who said both terms were equally bad rose from 12% to 15%.
The return of the opposition
The survey asked respondents for their views on various aspects of the resurgent opposition. The previous rounds consistently showed widespread distrust in Congress's ability to be a viable opposition. But has Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, now Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, emerged as a serious politician capable of reviving his party? About 54% of respondents agreed, compared to 49% when this question was last asked in the ninth round in December 2022. This indicates a fairly limited improvement in Gandhi's image, which is strongest in the bottom half of the socio-economic ladder.
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What parliamentary strategy should the Congress adopt to counter the BJP-led coalition government? . than half (54%) believe the party should play the role of a constructive opposition and be willing to make compromises in parliament for the good of the nation.
Respondents were also asked about their views on the Congress-led bloc, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), and its ability to challenge the BJP-led government. About two-fifths said the coalition would mount an effective challenge throughout the government's term. In the December 2023 round of surveys, 29% had responded similarly to the question on INDIA's ability to effectively challenge the BJP.
About 23% said the alliance should be wary of aggressive stances as it could become counterproductive, and 25% said some parties and leaders of the alliance could end up jumping to the BJP's side.
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The data suggests that the BJP has lost some support among those in the lower socio-economic strata – also signaled by the party's lower campaign outreach to them – and that Modi's popularity may have peaked. The image of the opposition as a challenger to the BJP and the perception of Rahul Gandhi have improved, but only marginally. While the disparity between the leaders of the two main political alliances remains high, it is clear that neither side can afford to be complacent at this point.
(The authors are affiliated with the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi)
(This is the first part of a series on the findings of the 12th round of the survey. Note that these surveys primarily target urban, affluent Internet users, with 90% of respondents falling into the NCCS-A socioeconomic consumer category. Full methodology note here.)
