No sooner had it unleashed the first of its drones on Israel on November 8 than the Iraqi militia published an image of rockets streaking through the sky. Israel said its air defenses had thwarted the attack by al-Nujaba (“the Nobles”). “Big surprises in the coming hours,” the group promised – in both Hebrew and Arabic: “God willing, many events.”
Most rulers of the Middle East, including those of Iran's allies, would prefer that God had other plans. Iraq has been doing quite well lately. It is finally using its oil revenues to fund infrastructure, not sectarian wars or foreign slush funds. Violence is at its lowest level since the US invasion. Its officials are desperate to sidestep Israel's conflict with Iran.
But their efforts are hampered by a lack of control over their own turf. Israel says Iran is sending new supplies of long-range missiles and explosive drones to its militias there. Iran is furious that America has let Israel use Iraq's airspace to bomb it. Iraq could be the next country to become involved in Israel's regional war.
For now, Iraq is relying on diplomacy to save the country. On November 10, the national security adviser went to Iran for talks with the Quds Force, the foreign operations wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran's praetorian guard. He urged his boss to keep Iraq out of any Iranian plans to attack Israel in retaliation for the Oct. 26 airstrikes. That same day, the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad al-Sudani, met the Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammad bin Salman, in Riyadh to discuss how to prevent the war from spreading. Meanwhile, the country's top cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has ordered the Iraqi state to take control of the militias' weapons.
But Iran fears that Israel's attacks on its air defenses and allies, long seen as its first line of defense, have left the country exposed. Until recently, the country showed what it called “strategic patience” and absorbed Israel's blows. But Israel's attacks on Hezbollah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, and its invasion of Lebanon have taught Iran that restraint appears weak and only invites further aggression. After firing two salvos of rockets from Iran, Iranian officials hoped that using Iraq would spare their country from an Israeli counterattack. And because Iraq is closer to Israel, Israeli air defenses would have less time to intercept a strike.
Until recently, Israel looked to American troops on land and sea to deter Iranian-backed militias in places like Iraq and Yemen. But the rout of Hamas and Hezbollah and the airstrikes on Syria have emboldened its leaders to focus on the rest of Iran's “axis of resistance.” Israeli security officials speak of a pre-emptive strike before the Iraqi militias unleash their 'big surprises'. .
Iran has two allies in Shiite-dominated Iraq. The first are the Shia factions that the country began to build after America overthrew Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. Since then, they have conquered the Iraqi state in the elections. With Iran's help, they formed the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) in 2014, a group of Iraqi state-funded militias.
But as these blocs became increasingly controlled by homegrown Iraqi interests, Iran sponsored new paramilitaries, such as al-Nujaba, under its direct command. After Israel invaded Gaza, Iran helped create the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (iri), another umbrella of militias that Iran pays and supplies. Since then, it has sent dozens of missiles and drones into Israel and attacked US bases. Israel's assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah commanders has left a vacuum in the axis' Arab leadership. Some Iraqi militiamen would like to fulfill this.
Iraqis have long tried to rid their country of foreign forces, both American and Iranian. They too have failed to do this. So rather than secede from America or Iran, Iraqi factions prefer to stay out of the fighting. PMF commanders have assured Mr Sudani that they will not use their weapons or fighters on the state payroll to attack Israel. If Israel were to limit its attacks to the Iri and avoid hitting population centers, the impact in Iraq could be limited, although it could be more difficult to contain if Israel were to strike near Iraq's Shia shrine cities where the iri is present, or if it were to affect the iri. pmf. Privately, some Shiites might even welcome an attack on the non-PMF militias. “These groups are just criminals and thieves,” said a graduate of one of Mr. Sistani's seminaries. “All Iraqis know they are just employees of Iran.”
America also wants to free Iraq from Iran's influence. On November 11, US forces attacked pro-Iranian militias in Syria, near the Iraqi border. Donald Trump, once he becomes president, might go even further. During his last term in office, he ordered the assassination of then PMF commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iran's top general Qassem Suleimani in Baghdad. No less worrying for Iraq is that Trump's advisers may be considering sanctions against the country. Since 2003, Iraq has deposited its oil revenues into an escrow account in New York. Trump, says an Iraq observer recently in Washington, may have that in his sights.
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