New Delhi:
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey 2021-2022 in parliament today. India will see economic growth of 8 to 8.5 percent in the coming fiscal year, up from 9.2 percent estimated in the current year, the annual survey predicted a day before the budget.
Nearly all indicators show that the economic impact of the “second wave” in the first quarter was much smaller than that during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21, even though the impact on health was more severe, the survey said.
Prannoy Roy and experts decode the annual survey.
Here are the live updates from the show:
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We really need to push Atmanirbharta. Fundamental trust in investors is needed. Indians think we have a big market and investors will come here. But the consumer market is small. So we need prices that are globally competitive: Dr. Arvind Subramanian
There is a historic opportunity for India today. After the global financial crisis, China became uncompetitive. This is the second chance: Investors are fleeing China for geopolitical reasons and places like Vietnam can’t take that place because of the zero-covid policy. So there is a historic opportunity: Dr. Arvind Subramanian
The delay has one big scar. MNREGA demand today is 40-50% above pre-pandemic levels. In a way, that left a deep scar in terms of the job crisis. The digital infrastructure has been improved. Recently we have had exports that we need to recognize. The privatization of Air India is a major achievement: Dr. Arvind Subramanian
India may have been a little more affected by the pandemic than elsewhere. Even leading up to the pandemic, the economy was weak: Dr. Arvind Subramanian
During the UPA it was called divestment. The political makeup of UPA did not approve of the word “privatization”. It doesn’t happen because the bureaucrats who have to do it are afraid they’ll have to sell at a lower price: Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia
According to the Economic Survey, growth of 8-8.5% is expected next year. But the question is, is 8.5% likely? in the first half, the economy grew by 13%. That is why they predict growth of less than five percent in the second half. How do we get it to 8-8.5%?: Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia
It is a difficult situation that most countries face. The economic survey is out. The growth forecast is high. 9.2% GDP growth forecast is based on data from the first half of the year: Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia
The convention was not as good as we expected. Today, half of India’s agriculture is irrigated. 99% in Punjab. Just increasing irrigation coverage is not enough. We must learn to use water for irrigation. We need to invest more in irrigation. We have four times the buffer food supply we need: Dr. Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist
We need to get jobs back. Jobs must return to service and SME sectors: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw
There is a vicious circle in the formal sector and a vicious circle in the informal sector. People in the formal sector have kept their jobs. But that is not the case in informal setor. We need a huge boost in informal sector jobs: Dr. Samiran Chakraborty
Economic activity back to pre-pandemic levels, but out of proportion to population: Sajjid Chinoy
We need to open up the economy and take courage and confidence that vaccines prevent disease. SMEs and the service sector must open up. We have to open the markets. We have to privatize it. We are long past the adequacy of vaccines. We must open up the export of vaccines. Otherwise, we won’t see the economic recovery we want: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw
We need to focus on these layers of society. Can we look at the minimum income of people who are plunged into poverty? Divestment must happen. We need to look at fiscal reform – we’re doing it too slowly. There is demand. We’ve invested so little in R&D that we can’t look at growth: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw
The tax-to-GDP ratio must be high. Our ratio is very very low. But who is going to pay for that? In two years you will not have a tight budget, because it is an election year. Next year will be a year close to elections. So it’s going to be a tight budget again. So, where will the corrections come in?: Economist Dr. Omkar Goswami
2021 was the year of policy strengthening. 2022 should be the year in which fiscal policy becomes supportive. We need a budget that focuses on growth. The main thing is to spend on public investment and infrastructure. We saw a 21% growth in infrastructure spending. We need more of this: Sajjid Chinoy, Chief Economist, JP Morgan
Any form of fiscal measure must relate to the supply side. Budget deficit versus inflation is a false dilemma: Junaid Ahmad, World Bank India, country director
80% expenditure on predefined items. Budget flexibility is at 20% of spending. The flexibility comes down to what one can achieve through divestments. The picture for this year isn’t as bleak as you make it out to be: Dr. Samiran Chakraborty, Chief Economist, CITI Group
The way we have failed says two things: the government talks about divestments, but they don’t and nobody in the government wants it. Npobody thinks the government wants privatizations. There is a lot of talk, but no faith: economist Dr Omkar Goswami
Need to put more disposable income in people’s hands to drive demand: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw
We need to double per capita income. We need to put more disposable income in people’s hands to drive demand. There is enormous economic pressure. We need to look at the bond market and other fiscal measures. We do a lot, but not enough. Pandemic has shown that we can do things in a smart way. We are sitting on an enormous amount of data. But we don’t really connect the dots to give us insight into the data. We need a sensible approach: Kiran Mazumdar Shaw
We need more investment from big companies and formalization of the economy to strengthen the economy. We need the investment to get in fast: Mahesh Vyas. MD & CEO, CMIE
Services like travel, tourism, restaurant, salons members more. The fear factor kept people from getting out. The only way out is to get vaccinated. The main reason for the slowdown was the capex slowdown since 2011-12. We need reforms – in the areas of taxation, capital control – to prop up companies: economist Dr Ila Patnaik
Frontline workers essential to get children back to school: World Bank India Country Director
20-24 percent of children will not go to school after the pandemic, especially girls. We see it in Latin America, Africa, South Asia. The front line is extremely important – aanganwadis, Asha workers – to get the students back to school. We have to chase the virus. Southeast Asia needs a regional surveillance system that can anticipate the disease: Junaid Ahmad, World Bank India, Country Director
Newly appointed Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said the government has considered medium-term stability, supply-side reforms and process reforms in preparing the 2021-22 economic survey.
Atmanirbhar Bharat Initiative A Response to Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Sanjeev Sanyal
“The post-Covid world will be affected by geopolitics, climate change and supply chain. All these factors will affect our economy,” said Sanjeev Sanyal, adding that the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative is the response to global supply chain disruptions .
Tourism sector continues to be hit by pandemic: Sanjeev Sanyal
Sectors such as financials, real estate and professional services have grown and have returned to pre-pandemic levels. But sectors that are contact-intensive, such as travel and tourism, are still affected, Sanjeev Sanyal said.
Form of economic recovery A “Tilted W”: chief economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal
The shape of economic recovery can best be described as a “tilted W,” he said, and that’s what the brightest minds in the country could come up with. During the pandemic, the domestic manufacturing sector witnessed erratic ups and downs, contractions and ups and downs, leading to an economic recovery that resembled a “tilted W”.
Agriculture least affected by lockdowns, chief economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal . says
The agricultural sector has been least affected by pandemic-induced lockdowns and is expected to grow at a 4 percent rate during the current fiscal, chief economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said.
The overall scenario, as envisioned in the economic survey, outlines a rebound in economic activity to pre-pandemic levels, chief economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal said today.
“There is a revival in economic activity to pre-pandemic levels, as evidenced by many indicators, such as electronic bill of lading collection, which have shown growth after falling during the second wave in the first quarter of the current fiscal year. collapsed,” said Mr. Sanyal.
The economic survey made a pertinent observation by noting that refined core inflation, which stood at 5.9 percent in the April-December 2021 period, was in fact lower than conventional core inflation.